Public Eye Online

A walking study in numerology

This morning, we reported Vision Vancouver mayoral nomination candidates Gregor Robertson and Raymond Louie have signed-up around 5,500 and between 4,000 and 4,500 members respectively. Now, The Vancouver Sun's Frances Bula is reporting Louie campaign manager Neil Monckton has confirmed "Raymond had 4,500-5,000 supporters, which is comprised of new members plus their estimate of how many supporters they have among the pre-existing 2,000 members." Meanwhile, Robertson campaign spokesperson Brad Zubyk told Ms. Bula "there are at least 5,5000 new members" listed on his candidate's spreadhseat. And what about Messrs. Robertson and Louie's competitor Allan De Genova? Well, our understanding is the De Genova campaign is claiming 4,000 sign-ups.

Share and share alike?

The Vision Vancouver mayoral nomination membership drive may be over. But it didn't come off without a hitch. On April 29, provincial New Democrat president Jeff Fox notified the civic association that many of his members were "concerned that BC NDP membership lists have either directly or indirectly found their way into the hands of the Vision campaign." The reason: a number of them have "called our office to advise that they have been contacted by phone by one of the candidate campaigns for Vision Vancouver." The letter doesn't name the campaign. But Mr. Fox goes onto to ask Vision Vancouver to "advise candidates and their campaigns that under no circumstances should they avail themselves of lists that are know to be or arising from current or past membership lists of the BC NDP." The following is a complete copy of that letter.

]]> April 29, 2008

Vision Vancouver
Carolyn Askew, President
Mike Magee, President
PO Box 4635, Station Main,
Vancouver BC V6B 4A

Dear Carolyn and Mike,

Recently many of our members have called our office to advise that they have been contacted by phone by one of the candidate campaigns for Vision Vancouver. These calls have solicited support as well as a request for donations. The members were concerned that BC NDP membership lists have either directly or indirectly found their way into the hands of the Vision campaign. In one instance when a member asked how their name and number had been obtained, the caller offered up the explanation that the individual must be a member of the BC NDP. In another instance, a constituency executive discovered that every member of the constituency executive had been called, despite the fact that one of the newer members does not belong to any other like-minded organizations in the lower mainland.

As you can appreciate the issue of list-sharing and protection of privacy of our membership lists is of great concern to our members. To help alleviate some of this concern we would ask if Vision Vancouver could help with the following

* Notify candidates and their campaigns of the proper procedure for establishing list-share policies
* Advise candidates and their campaigns that under no circumstances should they avail themselves of lists that are know to be or arising from current or past membership lists of the BC NDP.

As you know the BC NDP has developed very specific policies with respect to list-sharing as outlined below:

Under no circumstances may constituency associations or federal riding associations provide member or supporter information directly to NDP members running for local office or to an organization that is not affiliated with the NDP. Members or constituency or riding associations providing such information directly would be in violation of party Policy and may unwittingly violate statutory provisions or regulations.

We believe that it is not helpful to either the Party or Vision Vancouver if BC NDP members that that the protcols that dictate the proper use and protection of membership lists are not being adhered to. Any assistance you could provide in helping to deliver this message would be most appreciated.

Sincerely,

Jeff Fox
President
BC NDP

Dropping the puck?

Earlier, we exclusively reported former Vancouver Grizzlies and Canucks owner Arthur Griffiths was considering running for the provincial Liberals - possibly in the proposed riding of Vancouver-West End. And now we're hearing Mr. Griffiths will make that bid for elected office official next Tueday.

We got your number?

Last week, The Vancouver Sun's Frances Bula reported Vision Vancouver has signed-up "somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000" new members. But how are those members distributed amongst the three mayoral nomination campaigns? Well, the most reliable numbers we've heard put Gregor Robertson at around 5,500 sign-ups and Raymond Louie somewhere between 4,000 and 4,500. We haven't heard anything concerning Allan De Genova sign-ups. Although Ms. Bula earlier wrote Mr. De Genova's campaign wasn't among those who seemed "happiest these days about numbers."

Fair view on Fairview

Former Vancouver Quadra federal Conservative nomination candidate Rick Peterson says he's thinking about running for the provincial Liberals in Vancouver-Fairview. Said Mr. Peterson, "I had a chat with the premier. He called me a couple weeks ago and raised the idea. So we sat down and had a chat. It's really interesting, Sean. There's lots of good things happening. So it's something I'm looking at. And it's pretty exciting to think what this province is poised to do for the next four, five, six, seven years. So I'm definitely having a look at it, yeah." So when will he be making a decision about the matter? "I think it'll be pretty soon. I think, if it's a go, you'll be hearing pretty soon on it. But if it's a not go, you'll be hearing pretty soon too. But I'm definitely leaning in" the direction of running. New Democrat legislator Gregor Robertson, who is running for the Vision Vancouver mayoral nomination, presently represents Vancouver-Fairview.

M squared

Earlier, we reported former BC Cancer Foundation president and chief executive officer Mary McNeil would be running for the provincial Liberals in False-Creek. But who's going to be managing her campaign once she wins that nomination. Well, it's been suggested Mark Jiles, who formerly managed Premier Gordon Campbell's constituency campaigns, may be tapped for the task. But, in an interview with Public Eye, Ms. McNeil stated, "It's too early to say that. Obviously, he is in demand with a few people. Because he has helped me in the past" - managing her federal Conservative nomination bid in Vancouver-Quadra - "he's doing some work with me now...But until I'm actually the candidate - because I've got to sell memberships right now and I'm in that process - and it gets closer to the time, we just haven't made those decisions."

Worth 1,000 words

Decima Research Ltd.'s report didn't just include clever monikers for the Campbell administration's climate action initiatives. As part of its recommendations on the Campbell administration should sell those initiatives, the polling firm also tested a "series of visual concepts" connected to the environment - with the strongest reaction being to pictures of polar bears and cars in traffic.

]]> The firm also reported, "The contrast of showing two opposites - a situation that is taken for granted now and the aftermath of that situation being lost had a greater impact on making people care and thinking and what it means them. The image of kids with their elders in the wilderness enjoying a green space together, with a phrase that suggests it will be lost soon if people's habits don't change was recommended by many of the participants."

So if you soon see government commercials featuring children and their parents being mauled by polar bears and run over by gridlocked cars in the middle of the woods, you'll know where the Campbell administration came up with the concept.

LiveSmart through better polling

Research conducted by a national polling company appears to have been influential in laying one of the cornerstones for the Campbell administration's climate action initiative, Public Eye has exclusively learned. During its February 12 throne speech, the Campbell administration announced it would be rewarding British Columbians for making choices that will "save energy, water, fuel, time and money" as part of its LiveSmart BC strategy. But the thrust and even the name of that program - which will include "public education campaigns that will give citizens the tools and information they need to make informed choices" - seems to have been outlined in a report prepared by Decima Research Ltd. for the government in the days leading up to that announcement.

]]> The report - the result of 12 focus groups conducted during the last two weeks of January - stressed "British Columbians are increasingly looking at what they can do on a daily basis to reduce their cost of living, and at the same time reduce their environmental footprint." And group participants were willing to see government take measure to promote "environmentally-conscious behaviours" - such as rebating the purchase of hybrid cars or energy saving windows. But, according to the participants, government most important task was to teach British Columbians what they can do as individuals to solve the climate change problem.

Decima went on to report the phrase Living Smart was seen by focus groups as being "most consistently fitting with the sense of importance, urgency, and ethic" associated with environmental action.

Public Eye has filed repeated freedom of information requests since December for the results of Decima's research - the latest of which was set to be rejected on the grounds it would have revealed the substance of cabinet deliberations. But, instead, the Campbell administration quietly posted that report on the climate action secretariat's Website last week.

Schulmann: "...the New Democrats will be reduced to less than ten safe seats."

The provincial New Democrats continue to have bad polling results in British Columbia. They have been as much as 18 percentage points behind the Liberals in some surveys. That's hardly a place any opposition would want to be. And it certainly wasn't where the New Democrats were during the seventies and eighties. Looking at the numbers, the Liberals have between 46 to 48 percent of the vote, with the New Democrats at 32 to 36 percent and the Greens at 14 to 17 percent. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis, I have assumed a reasonable representation of the body politic would put the Liberals at 47 percent, the New Democrats at 34 percent and the Greens at 15.5 percent. Based on these numbers - and the new 85 seat legislature - if an election were held today the result would likely be 63 to 69 seats for the Liberals, 16 to 22 seats for the New Democrats and a possible Green legislator.

]]> In 2005, the New Democrats won more close races than they lost. Of the 13 closest, they won seven. That means the New Democrats have more marginal seats to defend than the Liberals. So even if support for the opposition was rising, those seats would still make it more difficult for the party to win government. But it's not rising. It's falling.

If the opposition loses seven more percentage points of support, the New Democrats will be reduced to less than ten safe seats. And many traditional left-leaning areas will be put into play for the Liberals. That will force Carole James to campaign in party strongholds such as Nanaimo, New Westminster and Revelstoke.

To make matters worse, the Liberals are once again doing a much better job than the New Democrats of finding strong candidates. For example, former Vancouver Grizzlies and Canucks owner Arthur Griffiths may run for the Liberals. But the New Democrat’s biggest get so far seems to be Burnaby mayor Derek Corrigan's wife.

Leaving those concerns aside, though, the latest polling numbers suggest the New Democrat will get about 645,000 out of 1.9 million probable votes in 2009. That's 87,000 less votes than they got in 2005 or a decrease of just over 1,000 votes per riding. Meanwhile, the Liberals will get about 895,000 votes. That's 87,000 more than they got in 2005 or an increase of 1,000 votes per riding. And the Greens will get about 295,000 votes - an increase of 133,000 votes or about 1,500 per riding.

And that could mean a victory for the Greens in the proposed riding of Esquimalt-Royal Roads (formerly Esquimalt-Metchosin). In the last election, the New Democrats won the riding by a reasonable margin. This, despite the fact the Liberal candidate was Tom Woods, the founder of Rock Solid. Boundary adjustments will mean the riding gains Vic West and loses Metchosin - changes that should favour the New Democrats over the Liberals.

But, in my opinion, incumbent legislator Maurine Karagianis has been one of the weaker members of the opposition. And she doesn't appear to have a strong base of local support - dampening an already soggy provincial New Democrat vote. And without Mr. Woods, the Liberal vote will also be dampened - creating a competitive environment for Green candidate and leader Jane Sterk.

Admittedly, Esquimalt isn’t Lasqueti Island - the first place the Greens won a Canadian election poll. But Ms. Sterk is being taken seriously by the provincial media. A strong local politician, she topped the township's polls in 2004. Her post as party leader should increase her provincial vote. And that vote will be aided by the influx young professionals into the riding from Vic West - who are more likely to vote for the Greens than the New Democrats. Although her chances could be thwarted if the Liberals run a strong candidate and Esquimalt-Royal Roads becomes a three-way race.

The Greens are unlikely to be serious competitors in any other ridings - notwithstanding the possibility of the party running a high-profile candidate such as former broadcaster and Socred cabinet minister Rafe Mair in a riding like West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. And that means 2009 will mark a continuation of two-party politics in British Columbia, with the Liberals once again forming government.

Bernard Schulmann, a policy and land use consultant, was recently the provincial campaign coordinator for Yes for BC-STV. In 1999, he predicted “the New Democratic Party is looking at four safe seats” in the 2001 election. “A complete shutout is not an impossibility.” Mr. Schulmann is presently a member of the provincial Liberals and federal Conservatives.

Home on the Tri-Cities range?

Provincial Liberal Port Moody-Westwood backbencher Iain Black has a "difficult decision" to make in the "coming weeks." In a message posted on TriCityEvents.com, Mr. Black writes his riding will be "dramatically affected" by the upcoming adjustments to British Columbia's electoral boundaries, being split in half. "The result is two very winnable ridings for the BC Liberals: 'Port Moody-Coquitlam' and 'Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.' I will announce the riding I intend to defend shortly after the passing of the legislation later this spring. In the mean time, I would urge each of you to seriously consider increasing your involvement in one of our four Tri-City BC Liberals Riding Associations, to renew your membership in the party, and to start engaging in the preparations (already under way!) for the next provincial election in 14 short months: May 12, 2009." Of course, what Mr. Black doesn't mention is that Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is the more winnable of those ridings. But that's the same constituency Liberal regional coordinator Greg Moore is assumed to be running in.

Meanwhile, on K Street

Another former senior provincial Liberal aide has joined the government relations industry. Steven Puhallo - who left the legislative precincts in 2006 to become a regional party organizer - has been hired as an account director with lobbying giant Hill and Knowlton Canada Ltd. The company also employs former ministerial assistant Steve Vander Wal.

West End Boy

Last week, we exclusively reported former Vancouver Grizzlies and Canucks owner Arthur Griffiths is considering running for the Liberals in the next election. At the time, Mr. Griffiths declined to say where he would be making his bid. But our understanding is that constituency may be the proposed riding of Vancouver-West End.

Timber!

Today, The Vancouver Sun's Gordon Hamilton reported "Premier Gordon Campbell told mayors attending a Whistler convention last week that he wants to support the province's forest industry by allowing the construction of wood-framed condominiums higher than the current four-storey limit. And Housing Minister Rich Coleman told the Canadian Home Builders' Association two weeks ago that he wants to see wood-framed buildings up to six storeys high." So where did the Campbell administration get the inspiration for this plan?

]]> Well, back in February, International Forest Products Ltd. vice president Ric Slaco attended a Campbell administration climate action meeting. And, at the meeting, Mr. Slaco delivered a PowerPoint presentation urging the government to promote British Columbia wood products by making "BC's Building Code and procurement policies wood-centric" and expanding the province's wood first policy to private buildings. This, as part of an effort to increase wood product use in construction for both environmentally and economic reasons. Fancy that!

Switcheroo

Earlier this month, Coalition of Progressive Electors school trustee Sharon Gregson announced she would be joining Vision Vancouver. And she's not the only coalition member switching sides. Tomorrow, it's our understanding West End Residents Association Aaron Jasper will also be signing-up with Vision Vancouver - and endorsing mayoral nomination candidate Gregor Robertson. Mr. Jasper is also chair of the Save St. Paul's Hospital Coalition.

Bystander Bloy

When last we spoke with Greg Moore, the Port Coquitlam councillor had been hired as a regional organizer for the provincial Liberals. So it should come no surprise many assume he'll run for the party nomination in the proposed riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. But he'll evidently be doing so without the support of neighbouring Burquitlam backbencher Harry Bloy. Asked whether he'll be backing the councillor, Mr. Bloy told Public Eye, "I don't support any candidate for individual nominations."