This morning, on Public Eye Radio, University of British Columbia political science professor Allan Tupper discusses ethics in government - specifically, whether conflict of interest rules for senior civil servants should be put into law. Association special education professor Pat Mirenda shares her thoughts on provincial plans to establish model schools. And Langara College journalism department chair Rob Dykstra talks about the alleged normalcy of media manipulation campaigns in politics. Also on the show: our rabble-rousing panel - Bob Russell, Alex Tsakumis, Allan Warnke and Brad Zubyk - debate the week that was in provincial and federal politics. You can listen to Public Eye Radio outside of Victoria by logging into CFAX 1070 between 8:30 and 10:00. If you have a question for one of our guests, you can email us, leave a comment below or phone (250) 386-1161 during the show.

Earlier, we exclusively reported significant changes were made to an economic analysis commissioned by the provincial New Democrat-controlled special committee on sustainable aquaculture. Asked about those changes committee chair Robin Austin explained "mistakes were made" by the consulting firm responsible for that analysis - something, he stressed, that's allowable in a working draft. And, in an interview with Public Eye, MMK Consulting Inc. president Stuart Mackay confirmed Mr. Austin's explanation.

"The difference between the figures in the working draft and the final draft" - which saw a decrease in the number of full-time equivalents employed by the aquaculture industry - "is entirely our responsibility. It's a 100-page report. And we came up with a number that we found - as we went through our due diligence - that we couldn't defend. So we changed it...It's not usual for numbers to change in a working draft," said Mr. Stuart.

He also said, "between February 16 and March 31, I did not receive a single telephone call from any member of the committee or have any contact (with the committe) other than through the clerk. So they've been very professional in their dealings with the me."

Last year, the provincial New Democrat-controlled special committee on sustainable aquaculture commissioned a first-of-its-kind economic analysis of the salmon farming industry in British Columbia. But, according to documentation exclusively obtained by Public Eye, a significant change was made to that report between February and March. A working draft, dated February 16, states salmon farmers employ 7,784 full-time equivalents - counting both direct, indirect and induced jobs. But that number drops to 2,945 full-time equivalents in a March copy of the report - which has not yet been released. So what's going on?

In an interview on Tuesday, committee chair Robin Austin said "mistakes were made" in the February draft submitted by MMK Consulting Inc. - the respected management and business consulting firm hired to write that report. "When they then went back to look at all of their figures to do further due diligence - to make sure when they come up with their final report that the figures actually standup to scrutiny - they realized that they had made an error" - which, he stressed, is allowable in a working draft report.

Specifically, the company had put "some numbers into incorrect columns" while separating the number of people "who are working (directly) in the salmon farming industry" from the indirect full-time equivalents.

"So then they went back to the salmon farming industry and said, 'Look, obviously we've made some mistakes here. We want to get again another snapshot of the actual people you have working on the processing side and on the farm side. Direct FTEs.'" And the end result was the March numbers.

Questioned whether the committee discussed those numbers - or how they were arrived at - during an in-camera meeting on February 16, Mr. Austin said, "No. We didn't bring this up. They presented their report to us." And, when later asked to confirm there was "no discussion whatsoever by the committee regarding what figures or what types of industries of what things should go into those employment numbers," he replied, "That's right. That's something MMK has come up with on their own recognizance." MMK president Stuart MacKay declined comment saying, "We've been asked by the committee to refer any media questions to them. So I'm really, unfortunately, not able to talk to you about" the matter. The following is a complete copy of the two number sets.

***

Salmon farming employment (full-time equivalents)

February 16 working draft

Direct 3,045
Indirect 3,647
Induced 1,902
Total 7,784

March copy

Direct 1,500
Indirect 1,032
Induced 413
Total 2,945

Federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion's environmental credentials have been promoted ad nauseam (pun intended). So some party members found it surprising Grit national director James Carroll drove to the Liberal's British Columbia general convention at the Sun Peaks Resort this past weekend in a rented...yes, you guessed it...Lincoln Navigator. In an interview with Public Eye, party communications director Elizabeth Whiting confirmed the rental. But she added, "Six people used the car to drive from Vancouver to Kamloops - rather than the environmental and financial costs of flying. As you know, there's no hybrid vehicle that would seat six people. And they did buy an offset credit for the trip" by making a donation to the Tree Canada Foundation's BC ReLeaf Fund at the convention. According to the United States government list, the 2006 two-wheel drive Navigator emits 12.6 imperial tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year - making it one of the most climate changing vehicles in its class - whereas the 2007 model emits 11.5 tons. Ms. Whiting wasn't able to say which model Carroll drove.

We're sure Public Eye readers will be losing sleep tonight, anxious to find out the results of the Non-Partisan Association's board elections. Well, here's the cure for your insomnia: David Choi, Yvonne De Valone, Victoria Mendes, Ned Pottinger and Matthew Taylor were electd to three-year terms on the board. Brian Demvy will be serving a two-year term. And George Cadman and Peter Ormesher will be serving one-year terms. But the big winner was...well, we'll leave that to you to figure out.

Late Tuesday, the Harper administration accidentally leaked details of its environment plan - which was scheduled to be released today - to the federal Liberals. Despite that snafu, though, Environment Minister John Baird soldiered on, inviting parliamentarians and their staffers to a Thursday afternoon technical briefing about that strategy. And that invite prompted this email response from Liberal Senator Larry Campbell: "Thank you for the invitation. I believe we already have a copy of your announcement. I am sure there must be someone who hasn't read it." The following is a complete copy of those emails.

----- Original Message -----
From: Campbell, Larry W
To: Baird, John - M.P.; - CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS CONSERVATEURS; - CONSERVATIVE ASSISTANTS CONSERVATEURS; - LIBERAL MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS; - LIBERAL ASSISTANTS; - LIBERAL RESEARCH BUREAU; - BQ DÉPUTÉS/MEMBERS; - BQ: ADJOINTS; - BLOC: CENTRE DE RECHERCHE ET DOCUMENTATION; - NDP MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS NPD; - NDP/NPD ASSISTANTS; - NDP CAUCUS SERVICES; - INDEPENDENT MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS INDÉPENDANTS; - SEN C; - SEN LIBERAL ; - SEN P.C.; - SEN IND; - SEN SENATORS' OFF/BUR. SENATEURS
Sent: Wed Apr 25 15:49:24 2007
Subject: Re: Briefing/séance d’information

Dear Minister Baird;
Thank you for the invitation. I believe we already have a copy of your announcement. I am sure there must be someone who hasn't read it.

Regards

Senator Larry Campbell

----- Original Message -----
From: Baird, John - M.P.
To: - CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS CONSERVATEURS; - CONSERVATIVE ASSISTANTS CONSERVATEURS; - LIBERAL MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS; - LIBERAL ASSISTANTS; - LIBERAL RESEARCH BUREAU; - BQ DÉPUTÉS/MEMBERS; - BQ: ADJOINTS; - BLOC: CENTRE DE RECHERCHE ET DOCUMENTATION; - NDP MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS NPD; - NDP/NPD ASSISTANTS; - NDP CAUCUS SERVICES; - INDEPENDENT MEMBERS/DÉPUTÉS INDÉPENDANTS; - SEN C; - SEN LIBERAL; - SEN P.C.; - SEN IND; - SEN SENATORS' OFF/BUR. SENATEURS
Sent: Wed Apr 25 15:38:26 2007
Subject: Briefing/séance d’information

Dear Colleague:

On Thursday, April 26, I will be making a major announcement on behalf of Canada’s New Government with regard to our regulatory plan on greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Therefore, I would like to invite you to a briefing by Environment Canada officials on Thursday, April 26 at 4:00 pm in Room 253-D Centre Block (Railway Room). Department officials will be available to answer technical questions about the plan.

While this invitation is for Senators and Members of Parliament, staff of Senators and Members of Parliament may attend if they bring a letter signed by their employer requesting admission to the briefing.

Should you have any questions, please contact my Director of Parliamentary Affairs, Garry Keller, at (819) 997-1441.

Sincerely,
Hon. John Baird, P.C., M.P.
Minister of the Environment

Chers collègues,
Chères collègues,

Le jeudi 26 avril, je ferai une annonce importante au nom du nouveau gouvernement du Canada concernant le cadre réglementaire sur les changements climatiques et la pollution atmosphérique.

J’aimerais donc vous inviter à une séance d’information donnée par les agents officiels d’Environnement Canada le jeudi 26 avril 2007 à 16 h dans la pièce 253-D de l’édifice du Centre (Railway Room). Les agents officiels du ministère seront sur place pour répondre à des questions techniques concernant le plan.

Bien que cette séance soit destinée aux députés et aux sénateurs, un membre du personnel de ces derniers peut assister à la séance à condition d’apporter une lettre signée de son employeur demandant que cette personne soit admise à la séance.

Pour toute question, veuillez communiquer avec le directeur des affaires parlementaires de mon cabinet, Garry Keller, au 819-997-1441.

Sincères salutations,
L’honorable John Baird, C.P., député
Ministre de l’Environnement

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is a "non-profit and non-partisan, advocacy organization dedicated to lower taxes, less waste and accountable government." So you'd think, given the federal Conservative's belief that government "must be fiscally prudent and should be limited to those responsibilities which cannot be discharged reasonably by the individual or others" that relations between the federation and the Harper administration would be cordial if not coozy. But you'd be wrong. Because the federation hasn't been able to meet with Jim Flaherty - despite having done so with every federal finance minister since the organization opened its Ottawa office in 1997. So what's going on?

In an interview with Public Eye, Minister Flaherty's press secretary Chisholm Pothier explained, "They were invited to a pre-budget consultation in 2006 - that's a sitdown with the minister to talk about issues. They didn't come for some reason. I can't tell you why." But Minister Flaherty has actually turned down meeting requests from the federation? Responded Mr. Pothier, "I'm not sure. The minister is, obviously, pretty busy. And we get a lot of requests for meetings. Not all of them can be accomodate. But, like I said, they were invited to a meeting with the minister in the lead-up to the 2006 budget. And they didn't come."

Earlier this month, Tourism, Sports and the Arts Minister Stan Hagen let slip the price tag for the Vancouver Convention Centre Expansion Project was now "in the low 800 (million dollar) range." That means the project is at least 62 percent over its initial $495 million budget - something the New Democrats have raised a justifiable hue and cry about. But the project isn’t a fast ferries fiasco quite yet. In the November/December 2005 edition of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation's magazine, then British Columbia communications director Sara MacIntyre assembled a list of some of the most egregious examples of government cost overruns in the country – including the PacifiCats, which came in 120 percent over budget. Other examples included Manitoba's Esplanade Riel pedestrian bridge (47 percent), Alberta's Louise McKinney River Front Park (71 percent) and renovations to the Parliament Buildings in Ottawa (218 percent). The following is a complete copy of that list.

British Columbia
Fast Ferries
Budget $210 million
Final price tag $463 million
Increase 120 percent

Alberta
Louise McKinney River Front Park
Budget $12 million
Final price tag $20.5 million
Increase 71 percent

Saskatchewan
Information Services Corp.
Budget $20 million
Final price tag $100 million
Increase 400 percent

Manitoba
La Esplanade Riel
Budget $15 million
Final price tag $22 million
Increase 47 percent

Ontario
SkyDome
Budget $150 million
Final price tag $608.9 million
Increase 306 percent

Federal
Parliament Hill Renovation
Budget $440 million
Final price tag $1.4 billion
Increase 218 percent

In the category of subliminal messaging: on our way to Rockpile, we spotted a van parked near the press gallery parking lot. On its side was painted "In Gord We Trust!" in grafitti-style letters. So is this another element of the provincial Liberal's alleged media manipulation activities or simply an indication the Campbell administration has got the graffiti artist vote? Just askin'!

Last week, the Campbell administration appointed Terry Kuzma to the New Relationship Trust's board of directors. Of course, we're confident Mr. Kuzma - the woodlands manager for Carrier Lumber Ltd. - is more than qualified for that post. But our astute readers may also be interested to know he was also the campaign co-chair for Agriculture and Lands Minister Pat Bell in the recent election. And in that role, Mr. Kuzma "committed literally hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands, of hours to the campaign." This, according to Minister Bell's 2005 budget speech. Asked whether there might be a perception of political patronage related to that appointment, Minister Bell said, "Not at all. It goes through the (board resourcing and development office) process, as you know. And it's vetted thoroughly. And I think Terry's a great choice for this. He has a track record of being able to work with First Nations" - adding that Carrier Lumber has a close relationship with two different aboriginal groups in northern British Columbia.

Yesterday, defense lawyer Kevin McCullough claimed that a call-in show segment featuring former premier Bill Vander Zalm was targetted as part of the provincial Liberal's alleged media manipulation acitivites. Reading from a police synopsis of a wiretap discussion between former senior government aide David Basi and then government caucus communications director Mike McDonald, Mr. McCullough stated, "Dave says they are going to give Vander Zalm a rough ride. (Mike) tells Dave to be careful, they don't want the phone numbers showing up from (government lines in) Victoria. Dave replies, 'Star 67, man.'" This, according to The Globe and Mail's Mark Hume. So what does Mr. Vander Zalm have to say about that report?

"Oh my goodness, can you believe it?" he said, upon hearing the news. "Well, what can I say. Having been in politics and watching it from the outside I've become extremely cynical. I'm not totally surprised. But, frankly, it's terribly disappointing to think that people in government...would spend their time calling a call-in show to make political points. It's terrible." Mr. Vander Zalm added he wasn't aware of any similar activities occuring while he was premier.

Earlier, we reported Vancouver-Fairview provincial New Democrat legislator Gregor Robertson "wouldn't rule out" running to be mayor of Vancouver "in the long-term." But he's not the only one being talked up as a future mayoral candidate. In an interview with Public Eye, maverick parks board member Allan de Genova - whose family attended Vision Vancouver's recent annual general meeting - confirmed he's also been approached about running for the top job.

"It's interesting because, over the last few weeks, a lot of the community leaders have come forward to say, 'Gee Al, we need someone who is a consensus-builder. We need someone out there that can really bring community together. You're weak in some areas - but those strengths you can build. A lot of mayoralty candidates have built their way up all the way through, starting at the grassroots at the park board. This is your fifth term going into your sixth. Maybe it's time you go big or go home." That was their words, actually. And I said, 'What do you mean by that?' And they said, 'Well, maybe you should be looking at the mayoralty candidate position. And would you go as an independent?' That was their question to me."

But it's not just community leaders who have approached Mr. De Genova about running for mayor. "A couple of senior people within the area of Vision (Vancouver) have said that they would support my for council or the mayoralty nomination," Mr. De Genova added.

But will he actually make a bid for the mayor's job? "It's a little bit of a surprise to me to be considered for the position," he responded. "I was always thinking about moving forward. I think it's almost time I need to move forward - to council at least. But, I've been quite humbled to know that people have said, 'You know Al, if you look at what Sam (Sullivan) and what he's done - and we look at other candidates that have run in the past - you have more than a better chance considering what you've done in all 23 different neighbourhoods over the past 15 plus years."

This morning, former ministerial assistant Bob Virk's lawyer Kevin McCullough read from an email allegedly sent on March 11, 2003 by the premier's press secretary Mike Morton to then senior political aide David Basi. According to Mr. McCullough, the email stated, "Thanks Dave - I'll let the Premier know your team is in place, whereas MM's is not. The Premier will be on John McComb's show - there will be a call-in." That email is said to relate to defense claims of media manipulation on that part of the provincial Liberals. Asked for comment, Mr. Morton said, "Again, at this stage, it's before the court. And I'm absolutely not making any comment on anything that may be coming out of the courts."

"There's going to be so much...skuttlebutt that may come out, that will come out, that could be accurate, may not be accurate. And I'm not going to comment and the premier's not going to comment," he continued, adding that he and Premier Gordon Campbell will answer questions "at the end of the trial." Mr. Morton declined to comment on current media manipulation activities by the Liberals.

Further unproven allegations of media manipulation by the provincial Liberals were made this morning in court. This, according to our colleague Bill Tieleman, who is covering the Basi-Virk case. But, in a stunning show of political agility rivaled only by beached whales and constipated hippos, the New Democrats didn't ask government about those allegations during today's question period. Meanwhile, Liberal House Leader Mike de Jong declined to discuss the matter, telling Public Eye, "I'm not going to talk about what's going on in court today." So are you aware of any media manipulation which has been undertaken the Liberals in the past or present, we pressed. "No," he responded. "And I'm not going to talk about what's going on in court today." For her part, Deputy Premier Shirley Bond said she was "absolutely not" aware of such activities. Meanwhile, the premier's chief of staff Martyn Brown didn't stop to talk with Public Eye when we asked him about the allegations on his way to caucus. Earlier, we reported the Liberals have a history of media manipulation, which isn't connected to the statements being made in court by defense lawyer Kevin McCullough.

Michael Klassen is best known to Non-Partisan Association members as the founder and president of Thinking Cap Inc. - the firm that designed and developed the civic party's Website and is responsible for Vancouver Mayor Sam Sullivan's monthly email newsletter. But what you may not know is that, in January, Mr. Klassen was appointed by council to the city's planning commission - which he vice-chairs. In an interview with Public Eye, Mr. Klassen explained, "Planning experience is not a prerequisite for the planning commission. The planning commission is intended to be a cross-section of Vancouver. And I think what they're looking for mostly is just a passion for the city. I was born in Vancouver General Hospital. And I've lived in the city and worked in the city my entire life. So I felt that was one of my bigger advantages - the fact I'm actively involved in my community, my neighbourhood assocation and pretty much any street I've lived on in the city. And maybe that was some good raw material that they were looking for."

Last week, the federal Liberals released a commercial promoting party leader Stephane Dion's role as president of the December 2005 United Nations Conference on Climate Change. And who was that commercial produced by, you may wonder? Well, that would be The Element Agency, a Vancouver-based advertising and communications agency headed by Don Millar. The company's portfolio includes considerable work with environmental advocacy groups. It's expected The Element Agency will lead the development of the Liberal's election advertisements as part of Red Leaf Communications - the consortium of Grit-friendly firms responsible for such work.

Federal Liberal conventions are supposed to give Grits a chance to hold their elected members to account. But it seems some parliamentarians don't think answering questions from the rank and file is a priority - despite recent commitments by the party to "foster greater engagement" with the grassroots. The accountability session at this past weekend's British Columbia general convention was attended by just four MPs - Don Bell, Raymond Chan, Hedy Fry and Blair Wilson. Absentees included Sukh Dhaliwal, Ujjal Dosanh, Keith Martin and Stephen Owen - as well as senators Larry Campbell, Ross Fitzpatrick and Mobina Jaffer.

Earlier, we reported Canadian Taxpayers Federation British Columbia communications director Sara MacIntyre had resigned to become the public relations director at NaiKun Wind Development Inc. So who's going to replace her, you may wonder? Well, the answer - which has been announced yet - is Maureen Bader, who was most recently a public affairs officer with the ministry of energy, mines and petroleum resources. Ms. Bader was also the corporate communications and public affairs director for the Prince Rupert Port Authority. And, as a member of the Fraser Institute in 1991, she published a number of papers describing the benefits of South Africa's free banking system.

This morning, on Public Eye Radio, federal New Democrat candidate Julian West discusses why he wants to represent Saanich-Gulf Islands. Vancouver Island Public Interest Research Group executive director Greg Awai shares his thoughts of developing a common vision for the capital regional district. And provincial New Democrat Olympic critic Harry Bains weighs in on the Vancouver Convention Centre Expansion Project debacle. Also on the show: our rabble-rousing panel - Don Anderson, Bob Russell, Alex Tsakumis and Allan Warnke - debate the week that was in provincial and federal politics. You can listen to Public Eye Radio outside of Victoria by logging into CFAX 1070 between 8:30 and 10:00. If you have a question for one of our guests, you can email us, leave a comment below or phone (250) 386-1161 during the show.

Today, former provincial New Democrat leadership candidate Mehdi Najari came within 17 votes of the winning his party's federal nomination in Saanich-Gulf Islands. But Malaspina University-College mathematics instructor Julian West beat Mr. Najari on the third ballot with 88 votes. Mr. West's victory came after Hanny Pannekoek and Victoria school trustee Mark Walsh dropped off after receiving the lowest vote counts and the first and second ballots respectively. The following is an unconfirmed vote count for that race.

First ballot

Julian West 56
Mehdi Najari 40
Mark Walsh 39
Hanny Pannekoek 32

Second ballot

Julian West 68
Mehdi Najari 52
Mark Walsh 42

Third ballot

Julian West 83
Mehdi Najari 66

Vision Vancouver's founders served the Coalition of Progressive Electors with divorce papers back in 2005. But that didn't stop coalition elected officials David Cadman, Sharon Gregson, Spencer Hebert, and Loretta Woodcock from attending last night's $150 per ticket Vision Vancouver fundraiser at the Al Porto Ristorante. Other newsworthies at the fundraiser - which was attended by around 200 supporters - included British Columbia Government and Service Employees' Union president George Heyman and federal Liberal British Columbia youth president Braeden Caley.

Earlier, our colleague Bill Tieleman reported Kevin McCullough, the lawyer for former Campbell administration aide Bob Virk, alleged David Basi, "while a ministerial assistant, was hired by the Liberal party on media monitoring contracts" which was "a highly political effort to sway public opinion through the use of radio shows and other events." Asked about those allegations, which have not been proven in court, provincial Liberal communications director Chad Pederson said, "We're not going to be commenting on anything that's coming out with the court proceedings. From our standpoint, it's a matter before the courts. And we're going to let that process take its course."

Public Eye has documented numerous attempts by administration and party officials - following Mr. Basi's firing and not connected to the aforementioned allegations - to sway public opinion through the use of radio shows and online opinion polls. For example, in January 2005, the premier's then Asia-Pacific trade and economic development director Prem Vinning used a different name other than his own when phoning in a question to a weekend Channel M call-in-show featuring Gordon Campbell. Then, in July, callers who sounded like Liberal organizers Dan Baxter, Brian Bonney and Mark Robertson phoned into a CKNW segement. And, last March, we caught Mr. Bonney encouraging supporters to skew the results of an online poll on The Tri-City News's Website.

As many of our astute readers know, the Basi-Virk picture show got underway yesterday. Unfortunately, because those court proceedings are taking place in Vancouver rather than Victoria, your humble organ isn't able to indepedently report on the case. But we recommend reading our colleague Bill Tieleman's comprehensive coverage of the trial, which is featured today in 24 hours and The Tyee - as well as on his own blog.

Finance Minister Carole Taylor is, arguably, more charismatic and telegenic than Premier Gordon Campbell. So it's understandable that many members of British Columbia's chattering classes think Taylor would be an excellent replacement for premier, should he retire. But what happens if Minister Taylor isn't around when that happens? Asked yesterday whether she has committed to running for re-election, the former broadcast journalist appeared surprised and said, "I have not made any comment about whether I'll be running again." But have you considered not seeking re-election, we pressed? "We're only half-way through (our term in government). And, at this point, what I'm doing is really just concentrating on doing the best job I can." But that isn't exactly a no. "I just honestly haven't put my mind to it," she responded, adding that she would make a decision "when the premier asks us what we're considering to do for the future."

Predicting any election based on polls is never an easy task. There are many factors that one can only guess at because there's no easy way to quanitify them. With this in mind, the following is an analysis to determine the most likely provincial election result based on the latest Ipsos-Reid Corp. survey - which has the Liberals at 49 percent, the New Democrats at 32 percent and the Greens at 15 percent.

The first-past-the-post electoral system magnifies a lead into an overwhelming win, as the gap between the top two parties increases. That means the Liberals - who won 46 seats with 45.8 percent of the vote in the 2005 election - would receive a landslide victory if an election were held today, increasing their representation in the legislature to 63 members. Whereas the New Democrats - who won 33 seats with 41.5 percent of the vote - could elect just 16 members. Other than the 2001 election, that would be the most lop-sided legislature British Columbia has seen since the advent of political parties in 1903.

This prediction is arrived at by sorting the ridings presently held by the New Democrats into safe, marginal and write-off seats. Using this break down we get 12 safe seats, nine marginal and 12 write-offs. If the marginal seats split slightly more to the Liberals than the New Democrats, the Opposition will win four more seats to take their total to 16. Based on the Ipsos-Reid numbers, there's no Liberal held riding in danger of being lost by the government.

Safe New Democrat seats

Nanaimo
Nelson-Creston
North Coast
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Newton
Surrey-Whalley
Vancouver-Hastings
Vancouver-Kingsway
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Victoria-Hillside
West Kootenay-Boundary

Marginal New Democrat seats

Alberni-Qualicum
Columbia River Revelstoke
Cowichan-Ladysmith
Esquimalt-Metchosin
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
New Westminster
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Surrey-Panorama Ridge

Write-off New Democrat seats

Burnaby-Edmonds
Cariboo North
Cariboo South
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Delta North
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
North Island
Saanich South
Skeena
Vancouver-Fairview
Vancouver-Kensington
Yale-Lillooet

Close races in 2005

There were 20 ridings where the winning margin was less than five percentage points. Eleven of these were won by the New Democrats and nine by the Liberals. The recent drop in support for the New Democrats means all the close ridings will change hands to the Liberals.

Incumbency

Incumbency matters and gives an edge to some legislators. An attempt has been made to factor the chances a sitting New Democrat MLA will win re-election. It's assumed a strong incumbency gives a five percentage point boost in support, while a moderate incumbency gives a 2.5 percentage point boost.

Strong incumbency bonus

Adrian Dix
Carol James
Corky Evans

Moderate incumbency bonus

Harry Bains
Jagrup Brar
David Chudnovsky
Gary Coons
Mike Farnworth
Guy Gentner
Sue Hammell
John Horgan
Charlie Wyse
Bob Simpson
Bruce Ralston

Vote concentration

In theory, the New Democrat vote could fall even further in strong Liberal ridings. Between 2001 and 2005, the party has shown much stronger results in ridings that are winnable than ones where it has no hope. There's very little space to allow this trend to continue. Within the context of this analysis it is assumed the New Democrat vote won't become more concentrated.

Unique local factors

A local issue - the closure of a school or hospital, for example - can have a major effect during in an election. In this analysis, the New Democrats been given a small boost in some ridings in British Columbia to reflect these issues. All other ridings absorb this boost to ensure the New Democrat vote total remains at 32 percent.

Can the Greens win a seat?

Miracles do happen. But the recent Ipsos-Reid poll numbers indicate it's still highly unlikely that the Greens will be able to win a seat - with one caveat. A very strong Green candidate in Powell River-Sunshine Coast could be a contender. This is the only riding where the gap between the winner and third place was less than 20 percentage points. Otherwise the best results for the Greens are in ridings where there is no danger of the Liberal losing. West Vancouver-Garibaldi - where the Green was second but still miles behind the winning Liberal - is a good example.

Bernard Schulmann, a policy and land use consultant, was recently the provincial campaign coordinator for Yes for BC-STV. In 1999, he predicted “the New Democratic Party is looking at four safe seats” in the 2001 election. “A complete shutout is not an impossibility.” Mr. Schulmann is presently a member of the provincial Liberals and federal Conservatives.

In January 2004, The Vancouver Sun's Jim Beatty quoted Premier Gordon Campbell as saying, "Our party is not involved in federal politics. I've been very clear that that should not be the case." Nevertheless, some of his MLAs continue to flirt with the federal Conservatives and Liberals. Consider, for example, Burquitlam backbencher Harry Bloy. According to his Facebook Website, Mr. Bloy is a proud member of the "Campaign to Elect Bill Cunningham Member of Parliament for Burnaby-Douglas." But Mr. Bloy doesn't just back the Grits. Last month, Ryan Warawa reported New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory candidate Yonah Martin "praised" the backbencher's support for her nomination campaign. Asked today whether such support is at odds with Premier Campbell's instructions, Mr. Bloy simply said, "There's a number of people that I support federally."

Despite provincial New Democrat transportation critic David Chudnovsky's recent appearance at a mass rally protesting the Gateway Program, the party still hasn't said whether they actually oppose that highway expansion initiative. But could it be that the days of hand-wringing and navel-gazing are at an end? That's the question some are asking following news that Lower Mainland New Democrat legislators met yesterday morning to discuss the matter.

Last April, Premier Gordon Campbell and Mayor Sam Sullivan launched a "co-operative planning process to create a cultural precinct in downtown Vancouver." Since then, city council has approved $900,000 in grants to "develop Phase One (of that process) as well as a long-term strategy" for the cultural precinct. But doesn't that precinct presuppose the results of the Creative City Task Force, which is in the process of authoring a 10-year strategic arts and culture plan? Not at all, according to Vancouver cultural services managing director Sue Harvey.

Asked whether it might have made more sense to wait for the release of that plan before embarking on the cultural precinct project, Ms. Harvey said, "If one were starting from scratch, it might. But we have had a priority plan that's been in the place for the previous ten years." And the cultural precinct - which includes redeveloping Vancouver civic theatres - is consistent with that plan. Moreover, Ms. Harvey explained the city hopes those theatres "will be important venues that will be utilized during the arts festivals that will be associated with the Olympics." So it's important to get the cultural precinct project underway as soon as possible.

Earlier, we reported the Vancouver Island Aboriginal Transformation Team recently informed children and family development stakeholders that their aboriginal authority will begin service by 2008. This, despite the fact the ministry discarded targets for establishing aboriginal and non-aboriginal authorities in its latest service plan. Children and family development declined an opportunity to comment. But provincial New Democrat critic Maurine Karagianis was pleased to share her thoughts about the issue. "I think the Liberals aren't making any firm public commitments because they're not confident in their ability to pull this off," she explained, referring to the regionalization of children and family development services. "They're extremely gun shy. And they don't want to make any commitments for which they can be held accountable later."

Did you know federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion is an environmentalist? Well, given Mr. Dion's seemingly inability to speak about little else in the way of policy issues, you likely do. And, in keeping with that theme, the Liberal constituency association in Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam has organized a $75 per ticket fundraiser dinner featuring Simon Fraser University biological sciences professor John D. Reynolds - the Tom Buell BC Leadership Chair in Salmon Conservation. According to the advertisement for that dinner, his talk - "Things Change: Oceans, Climate, and Environmental Policy" - will be "non-partisan. His participation does not indicate support for, or affiliation with, the Liberal Party of Canada." Fair enough. But, regardless of Prof. Reynold's intentions, couldn't it be argued his presence at that event is inadvertently assisting the Grits in their partisan fundraising efforts?

In response to that argument, Prof. Reynolds - an internationally recognized expert on biodiversity and fish ecology - explained, "My approach is that I'm happy to talk to anyone who wants to hear about marine conservation issues - regardless of their party affiliation. I take the position that if I start discriminating against this group or for that group or whatever and get political than I'm just going to be on a road that I don't really want to travel down. I'm involved in advising (the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans). I've been advising the province as well. And these are all totally non-partisan." The following is a complete copy of the aforementioned advertisement for that fundraiser.

***

Fundraising Dinner, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Come and enjoy a dinner hosted by the Port Moody - Westwood - Port Coquitlam Federal Liberal Riding Association.

When:
Wednesday, April 25th, 2007
Reception 6:30 pm, Dinner 7:30 pm

Where:
Empire Greek Taverna
2232 McAllister St.
Port Coquitlam

Special Guest Speaker:
"Things Change: Oceans, Climate, and Environmental Policy"
Professor J. D. Reynolds
Tom Buell BC Leadership Chair in Salmon Conservation
Department of Biological Sciences
Simon Fraser University

(Professor Reynolds' talk will be non-partisan. His participation does not indicate support for, or affiliation with, the Liberal Party of Canada)

Tickets:

$75 (Cheque or Credit Card) Payable to Federal Liberal Agency of Canada #821
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Proceeds go to the Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam Federal Liberal Riding Association.

Earlier, we reported the ministry of children and family development had discarded targets for establishing aboriginal and non-aboriginal authorities in its latest service plan - released on February 20. At the time, the minister responsible Tom Christensen explained those targets had been discarded because government "will not force the process by putting a time frame in place." So some our astute readers may be surprised to learn just such a time frame exists for at least one of those new aboriginal authorities.

On February 8, according to records obtained by Public Eye under freedom of information legislation, ministry stakeholders received an "update on aboriginal authorities" as part of a meeting at the Best Western Richmond Hotel and Convention Centre - which Christensen was scheduled to attend. And, during that update, the Vancouver Island Aboriginal Transformation Team notified stakeholders their authority would begin service by 2008 - having been "recognized in provincial legislation."

The team's timeline, also shows that - sometime between 2008 and 2020 - aboriginal communities will have the "required capacity to support children" - who will be "cared for through community laws, traditions and customs," resulting in "significantly improved outcomes for vulnerable children and families." The following is a complete copy of the text of that timeline, which doesn't indicate whether the team will be taking a phased approach to establishing the Vancouver Island Aboriginal Authority.

***

Vancouver Island Aboriginal Transformation Team

Reclaiming Authority
Timelines and Milestones

Prior to European colonization, the traditional practices of Aboriginal Nations supported healthy and vibrant communities, with strong systems for caring for children and families. Over time, with massive settlement and colonization, that capacity was eroded and fragmented.

In response, Aboriginal people have always insisted on their unceded rights to care for their children, and have taken steps to regain their traditional jurisdiction. The creation of Aboriginal Authorities represents a significant opportunity to advance that goal.

2002

Tswwassen Accord affirms Authorities as consistent with self-determination

Unity developed on goal of reclaiming responsibility through Aboriginal Authorities

(Editor: the following milestones are listed between 2002 and 2008 on the timeline)

Aboriginal communities plan to reclaim Authority for their children

Goals set for transition of services from MCFD

Unity of issues of children initiates historiic changes in Aboriginal Community relations with Crown

2008

Aboriginal Authority begins service

Aboriginal Authority recognized in provincial legislation

Aboriginal community begins to transform services

Responsibility for children in its rightful place: Aboriginal communities

(Editor: the following milestones are listed between 2008 and 2020 on the timeline)

Aboriginal Children and families cared for through community laws, traditions and customs.

Significantly improved outcomes for vulnerable children and families

Aboriginal communities have required capacity to support children

As Aboriginal people, fully exercising our inherent title and rights through self-determination, we have strong and healthy children, youth and families.

Earlier this month, former provincial New Democrat government caucus communications director Brad Zubyk said there was a "lack of vision and leadership" in the party. So what does Mr. Zubyk think about Ipsos-Reid Corp.'s latest public poll showing the New Democrat support fallen four percentage points over the past three months to 32 percent support, while Liberal support has risen four percentage points to 49 percent? "I don't think there's much to say," quipped Mr. Zubyk. "The numbers speak for themselves." Global BCTV legislative bureau chief Keith Baldrey was the first to report on that poll - which surveyed 800 British Columbians between April 4-10.

The Campbell administration has consulted with University of Victoria earth and ocean sciences professor Andrew Weaver as part of its initiative to address the global warming problem. In an interview with Public Eye, Prof. Weaver, a prominent climatologist, confirmed he met with the administration's climate action cabinet committee last Wednesday. But he's keeping what was said during that meeting - which took place at the premier's Vancouver office - under lock and key. "That's something I'm not prepared to discuss with the media," he explained. "Because, you know, I do agree with the premier that there are certain frank discussions that you can't have if you do them in an open environment. Public policy has to be debated publicly. But the discussions that you have, at times, need to be kept confidential. Because, if they're not confidential, you don't end up saying the kind of things you need to say."

At least one Non-Partisan Association politician won't be running for re-election in 2008. In an interview with Public Eye, Eleanor Gregory confirmed she told her Vancouver school trustee caucus colleagues about those plans yesterday. Explained Ms. Gregory, "There's many things I want to do in my life. And I've spent a lot of time involved in politics. And, with my children now being young adults, there are many other things to do that intrigue me. And I want to make sure I do them."

This morning, on Public Eye Radio, Pennsylvanians for Modern Courts associate director Shira Goodman discusses why her state is moving away from electing judges - a system 66 percent of Canadians support according to a recent Strategic Counsel survey. Former Vancouver children and youth advocate Penny Parry discusses the political punishments that can be levelled against social service organizations that speak up on behalf of their clients. And Convergence Communications Ltd. principal Mike Magee shares with us his thoughts about the controversial deal between the federal Liberals and the Greens. Also on the show: our rabble-rousing panel - Bob Russell, Alex Tsakumis, Allan Warnke and Brad Zubyk - debate the week that was in provincial and federal politics. You can listen to Public Eye Radio outside of Victoria by logging into CFAX 1070 between 8:30 and 10:00. If you have a question for one of our guests, you can email us, leave a comment below or phone (250) 386-1161 during the show.

Federal Green leader Elizabeth May has cancelled Kevin Potvin's candidacy in Vancouver-Kingsway. This, according to lengthy response to "widespread media criticisms" posted by Mr. Potvin on The Republic of East Vancouver's Website. The now former candidate was told about Ms. May's decision by a party official late this afternoon. "My apology, it was explained, had not gone deep enough," he writes. "I was expected to disown my own words" - specifically, a controversial editorial Mr. Potvin published about the 9-11 tragedy. Public Eye exclusively told you about that editorial on Thursday morning.

Interested in attending a $225 per ticket fundraising reception featuring federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion and Surrey candidates Sukh Dhaliwal, Judy Higginbotham and Brenda Locke tomorrow evening? Well, not enough party members were. Because the fundraiser, scheduled to take place at the Coyoto Creek Golfcourse, has been cancelled. Organizers made a push to sell more tickets on Thursday. But, by Friday, it had become apparent attendance at the event would be a bit lacking - which may have had something to do with the fact former party leadership candidate Ken Dryden had a fundraiser for Ms. Locke at the exact same location Thursday evening. So Mr. Dion's Coyote Creek soiree has been rescheduled - at the request of the Surrey constituency associations - for the next time the leader visits British Columbia. The following is a complete copy of the invite to that event.

From: bc@liberal.ca
Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 5:28 PM
Subject: Stéphane Dion in the Lower Mainland

Dear,
Cher/Chère,

Surrey Town Hall Discussion on Crime with Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion

When: Saturday April 14th, 5PM

Where: Sheraton Guildford Hotel, 15269 104 Avenue, Surrey, BC.

If you are interested in attending please RSVP to info@lpcbc.com.

Space is limited, so please reserve now!

There is no cost for this event, however only those who reserve will be admitted.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Surrey Liberals present an Evening with Liberal Leader Stephane Dion

Please join your Surrey candidates Sukh Dhaliwal, Brenda Locke and Judy Higginbotham for a fundraising reception with the Hon. Stephane Dion.

When: Saturday April 14th, 7PM

Where: Eaglequest, Coyote Creek Golfcourse, 7778 Range Road 183, Surrey, BC.

Cost: $225

For tickets please contact:

LPCBC 604 664 3777

More news from Kevin Potvin: this morning, federal Green Vancouver-Kingsway candidate distributed a statement on 9-11 that will read outside Beans Cafe later today. In that statement, Mr. Potvin will call on constituents to "share with each other how these (events) have turned so many of us from un-conflicted lovers of peace into a people who call for war, from a nation that used to pride itself on its ability to broker peace between warring parties, into a nation that has become one of the warring parties.'" Meanwhile, the National Post's Katie Rook is writing about Mr. Potvin's controversial 9-11 editorial in today's edition of the broadsheet. The following is a complete copy of the candidate's aforementioned statement.

Statement April 13, to be read at 1 PM outside Beans Cafe, 3365 Cambie Street:

The people of Vancouver Kingsway and the people of Canada suffered a serious trauma the day of September 11. We were all subjected that day to images and stories more brutal to our souls and hearts than anything since World War I.

Like all victims of serious trauma and abuse, we have deep seated and conflicted feelings about it that linger to this day. We continue to move through feelings of extraordinary fear, of shocking horror, of terrible anxiety, and yes, of revulsion too.

Sixty-eight months later, we need to share with each other how these have turned so many of us from un-conflicted lovers of peace into a people who call for war, from a nation that used to pride itself on its ability to broker peace between warring parties, into a nation that has become one of the warring parties, and from a nation that asks its citizens in brass affixed to every cenotaph in every city and town from Cape Spear to Ucluelet, "Does it mean nothing to you?"

What does September 11 mean to you? We have to go down inside and find the honest answers to that question, even if they are very unpopular answers, and even if they are revolting confessions, which is the title of the story I wrote five years ago.

We are a strong nation, forged, we are recently reminded, in war at Vimy Ridge. That kind of strength is one made to withstand our personal confessions about some of the stranger and more unspeakable feelings some of us had that day, feelings that we need to put out there to be done with them.

We need to put some of that fear, some of that horror, and some of that anxiety behind us, so that we as a country can return to our peace-loving, peace-negotiating traditions, and so that we as a people can answer that 90-year-old question today by saying, "It means a lot to me. It means I cherish peace and I hate war-and I always will no matter what they throw at us."

The veterans of the most shocking and brutal acts of war ever inflicted by humans on humans put that question to us inscribed in timeless brass for a reason. They learned in the most brutal fashion that war never ends war. Peace ends war.

By Kevin Potvin

Today, the Canadian Press's Joan Bryden reported Grit leader "Stephane Dion has decided not to run a Liberal candidate against Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in the next federal election...In return, sources say May will promise not to run a Green candidate against the Liberal leader and will essentially endorse Dion for prime minister." And at least one former British Columbia Green leader is endorsing that deal. In an email addressed to Canadian Greens, Stuart Parker - now a New Democrat - writes that he's "very pleased to see the party returning to the kind of coalition-building politics I attempted to inaugurate in my last years as leader." And he's hopeful "that in the coming months, the Greens will consider coming to the table with New Democrats and BQ members as well." The following is a complete copy of that email.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Stuart Parker"
Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 6:42 PM
Subject: Mature and Courageous Move

Dear Canadian Greens,

I have just read CBC's story about the impending deal between the Green and Liberal parties; I am just writing a short note to express how thrilled I am that the Greens have moved back to a sensible position with respect to vote-splitting and coalition-building. When I left the Green Party in 2000, after serving as the leader of the BC Greens for seven years, I did not anticipate that the party would ever mature into an entity that put getting results for Canadians ahead of exacting revenge on the Liberals and NDP for not doing enough. I am very pleased to see the party returning to the kind of coalition-building politics I attempted to inaugurate in my last years as leader.

I am hopeful that in the coming months, the Greens will consider coming to the table with New Democrats and BQ members as well. I also want to suggest that the party examine the deal made between the French Greens, Communists and Socialists crafted in the 1990s, to see how electoral alliances amongst political parties can work in a single-district voting system. Similarly, you may find useful the agreements negotiated in Vancouver and Victoria amongst the Greens, New Democrats and labour councils for models of how alliances can partly harmonize policy. As a New Democrat, I shall be raising my own voice to exhort my party to come to the table and see how we might work with the Greens and Liberals in the up coming election as I imagine a number of other former Greens in NDP ranks will do.

Please let me know if there is anything I can do to support this new direction in Green politics short of rejoining the party.

Yours truly,

Stuart Parker.

Earlier, we exclusively reported on federal Green Vancouver-Kingsway candidate Kevin Potvin's controversial 9-11 editorial. Speaking first with Public Eye, Mr. Potvin said he still endorses the "totality" of that editorial. But what does the Green Party have to say about his opinions? In an interview, deputy leader Adriane Carr said Mr. Potvin's four-year-old article "certainly raises alarm bells in my mind." So she called Mr. Potvin this morning to discuss the matter.

During that call, Ms. Carr, "asked him the question of where does he stand on violence and war. And he is clearly against violence and war. And that is, of course, the Green Party's perspective. So I was reassured in that answer."

The deputy leader explained the Greens don't whip candidate into line like other parties, where "people don't have the freedom to express things." That being said though, Ms. Carr added, "I think he went over the top. I don't think you'd find Green Party members, in any sense, thinking that the tragic loss of life and use of violence (on 9-11) was in any way right. And I needed to hear a reasurrance from Kevin that he felt that way."

"He told me he does feel that way - and that he did use provocative language and emotion to make the point that there are a lot of lives being lost in wars that are not being reported on. And that is certainly something that I sympathize with and the Green Party sympathizes with. We have become, as a society, inured to the level of violence and death that occurs around our world. Fair enough. That's a point worth making. How he made was, in my mind, over the top. And I was happy to have him confirm for me that he doesn't support violent acts or war."

But aren't the Greens concerned about running a candidate who, for example, felt an "urge to pump my first in the air" after American Airlines Flight 77 slammed into the Pentagon? "I think, to me, it's upsetting to think that anybody would think that that kind of incident - or anything to do with the violence that's out there - may teach a lesson," she responded. "Because, obviously, it doesn't teach a lesson. It just begets fear and violent response and wars on terror."

"So it may be good literary license. But, politically, the license is a bit narrower. I felt sure that it was his creative way of putting forward a pretty awful fact about the war. It was politically risky. He was doing it as a journalist. So, politically, I would expect he would consider what he was saying in the context of our party's absolute commitment to non-violent resolution of conflict."

So will Mr. Potvin be the Green candidate in Vancouver-Kingsway when Canadians go to the polls? "I think that it's important to have a party in which candidates are able to express their points of view and they don't have to toe the line. But this one goes over the top for me...He's been nominated. He hasn't gone through the full process yet. I think I have to leave it at that. And I will have further conversations with him. But, as I say, at least today, he has reassured me."

Kevin Potvin, who was acclaimed last month as the federal Green candidate in Vancouver-Kingsway, made a "revolting confession" - in his own words - on November 28, 2002. That's when Mr. Potvin published an editorial in The Republic of East Vancouver - the alternative newspaper he founded - discussing his immediate reaction to the 9-11 tragedy.

"When I saw the first tower cascade down into that enormous plume of dust and paper, there was a little voice inside me that said, "Yeah!" When the second tower came down the same way, that little voice said, "Beautiful!" When the visage of the Pentagon appeared on the TV with a gaping and smoking hole in its side, that little voice had nearly taken me over, and I felt an urge to pump my fist in the air," wrote Mr. Potvin.

"This is a revollting confession," he admitted in the editorial. "But it's what happened."

Mr. Potvin went onto add, "I know lots of people were killed. But then again, I see lots of people getting killed whenever I turn the TV news on, and frankly, it doesn't really get to me anymore...Let's face facts. If the news on the morning of September 11 was that 3,000 Tanzanians or Burmese had been killed, they wouldn't have broken in on regularly scheduled programming, or cancelled football games, and there'd be no conversation about it the next day. No one would say the world changed. It's been a long time since lots of people getting killed is, in itself, news, and we all know this, and we all live comfortably with it."

"The only reason September 11 merits so much attention is because the targets were so supremely symbolic. Corporatism and militarism were struck that morning, and that's why it's such big news...I recognized these facts on that fateful day and so did a lot of other people, and I know I wasn't alone when I heard that little voice inside me say, 'Yeah, beautiful!'"

Asked for his reaction to the four-year-old editorial, Mr. Potvin told Public Eye, "There's a lot of sentences there that could be stripped of their context and be pretty damning. I guess I could do the slippery thing and say I'll go home and read it. Or I could also give you a wishy-washy answer. But, listen man, I've got to be honest with you. I totally endorse that. I want to caution you though, I endorse it in its totality. I know what I write. I write controversially all the time. And you can go anywhere online and find in my archives a sentence that is pretty condemning. And this one certainly has a whole bunch of them that are pretty bad sounding on their own...But the concept (of the editorial) is people get killed all the time and we don't get bothered by that."

Public Eye was first alerted to Mr. Potvin's controversial editorial by one of our astute readers. Earlier, we reported Mr. Potvin was encouraging would-be supporters to come meet him and talk "about 9-11 truth and implications for Canadian foreign policy, at Beans Cafe, 3365 Cambie Street, Friday April 13 at 1 PM."