Kevin Falcon's team is steeling themselves for the potential release of public opinion polls this week that will likely show their candidate behind competitor Christy Clark. In a confidential email, sent yesterday and exclusively obtained by Public Eye, campaign manager Norman Stowe wrote that Ms. Clark and fellow competitor George Abbott are "pushing pollsters for another public poll, pre-vote. I suspect this will show CC ahead, again because of her strong name recognition." But Mr. Stowe reminded team members that "voter ID and getting the vote out is the only thing that wins of Saturday," noting that "pollsters do not understand Get Out The Vote efforts or voter ID drives" and that any survey "would be conducted before our KF persuasion mail arrived in mailboxes across the Province." The following is a complete copy of the aforementioned email, which goes on to state "significant majorities" from both Mike de Jong and Mr. Abbott's second ballots support "will trend to KF. This will push Kevin past CC on either the second or third ballot." The email also notes Mr. Falcon's "first-ballot voter ID has now surpassed one-third of the BC Liberal membership list."
To: Falcon Campaign Team
From: Norman Stowe, Campaign Manager
Date: February 20, 2011
Re: Path To Victory
CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
After discussion with Marko and the voter ID team, we know that our first-ballot voter ID has now surpassed one-third of the BC Liberal membership list, meaning KF will finish ahead of both MDJ and GA on the first ballot. This gives us the necessary momentum to win on a second or third ballot.
We understand that CC and GA are pushing pollsters for another public poll, pre-vote. I suspect this will show CC ahead, again because of her strong name recognition. We also know that these things are flawed and why we've stayed away from them in favour of voter ID as we head into Saturday's vote. Voter ID and getting that vote out is the only thing that wins on Saturday. Period.
* Pollsters have no access to BC Liberal Party membership lists, unless a candidate has leaked them a list.
* Such a list would be highly susceptible to being warped by campaigns providing a higher percentage of their supporters.
* Pollsters cannot work with the vagaries of the weighted vote system. Random samples are rendered irrelevant by this system.
* A sample size of 400, for example, across BC would only give an average of four responses per riding.
* Pollsters do not understand Get Out The Vote efforts or voter ID drives.
* The poll would be conducted before our KF persuasion mail arrived in mailboxes across the Province.
With 20 MLAs (let's hear it for Colin!) now on the KF team-including our candidate-our path to victory is solid. In addition to winning a minimum of 50 points in their own riding, our MLAs have also adopted a buddy riding, with a target of at least 40 points in each of these additional constituencies.
In the other ridings, we need 1,035 points (an average of 23 points per riding) to guarantee victory on the final ballot. Our numbers people have said this can certainly be done, especially given the strength of our team in several of these ridings. Our detailed voter ID also confirms that we will hit that threshold.
Our Voter ID, along with organizer and MLA feedback in each riding, shows that significant majorities from both MDJ and GA second ballot support will trend to KF. This will push Kevin past CC on either the second or third ballot.
Our job now is to get on the phone, send out e-mails, and get our KF vote out. We win as a team, or we lose as a team. Our MLAs understand their important role and KF has spoken to them directly about his expectations of them. Our "Get Out The Vote" is second to none (Yeah Marko!), but don't take this for granted. The phones need to be worked and any MLA who isn't on the phone over the next five days needs to ask themselves one question: What is more important than making calls to uncommitted members? Nothing!
Let's win this thing! Kevin has worked so hard and he deserves our best effort in the final days. See you all at the finish line.