If current trends hold, the next federal election, whenever it is, will be a lot like the last three. Whatever public debate occurs will be dominated by three questions: can Stephen Harper get his majority, what will he do to lose it this time and just how bad can the Liberals get. No wonder Canadians are less than enthused about returning to the polls. Thinking beyond the next election, however, things gets more interesting as the upcoming campaign will be both Mr. Harper and Michael Ignatieff's last.
Assuming another Liberal defeat, there is nothing about Mr. Ignatieff to suggest he will wear it well or anything on his resume to suggest he is capable of playing a "long game." The latter point is maybe the most important reason why he has proved ill-suited for his job - he simply lacks the patience needed to undertake the rebuilding his party so clearly requires.
As for Mr. Harper, many Conservatives, who have bristled under his iron-fisted control of their party, share the same lack of warmth that Canadians have for him. There's no core of committed personal supporters to protect him once people start wondering if he's been around too long - there never has been.
Moreover, in the past three elections, he has personally been responsible for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Any Conservative who wants to know why a majority has eluded them might list several factors but Mr. Harper is at the top. And, finally, he has always been the reluctant politician who probably looks forward to a life away from it. I don't think he'll have to be pushed.
But regardless of whether Mr. Harper gets his majority - and can therefore retire on top - or yet another minority, the next election is his last.
In the subsequent leadership races the majority of Liberals will ask themselves two questions: who do I agree with and who's going to win the leadership (how do I make sure I'm with the winner). Put differently: what do I want or what's good for me?
In other words, it will be about them and not about "us". Similar to the current version of our provincial New Democrats, the Liberals are delusional if they think they'll inevitably win government just because a majority of the electorate doesn't like the current administration.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Leadership race will be quite different. They will be asking themselves only one question: what do we have to do to win a majority. Put differently: what do Canadians want or think is good for them?
In other words, their leadership race will be about "us" and not about them. Long gone is the Conservative party of "hidden agendas;" the social conservative wing of the party has been overwhelmed by what is the most moderating influence in any democracy: power.
As Canadian yearning for the generational change Americans are experiencing increases, it appears more and more likely that it will be the Conservative not the Liberal party that will be the vessel for that change. Look no further than who's seeking nominations for either party. It is arguably the Conservatives that are attracting the best of the next generation while Liberals recruit blasts from the past, continue to fight old battles among themselves or advance other personal agendas leaving little room for anyone who's actually new.
It may take two more elections before Canadians actually get something to vote for but don't be surprised if it comes from someone you maybe weren't expecting.
Bob Russell, a businessman and former civil servant, was chief of staff for the provincial Liberals in Alberta from 1986 to 1989. In 2004, he ran for the federal Liberal nomination in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Bob, you think any BCLibs going to jump to the Conservatives? Great column, just curious on that one.
Perspective analysis as I have come to expect from you, Bob.
Don't know if I agree totally on Harper being a reluctant politician. I think he is, at least, torn between being reluctant and wanting political success and/or acceptance quite badly. BTW do you or I know any adults who aren't conflicted about something?
Before I read your opinion I watched the youtube video of Harper performing the Beetles' tune, "I'll get by with a little help from my friends," with the Ottawa Symphony. Interesting and probably very savvy political move on his part to redress criticism of his nasty remarks about those who support public funding of the arts.
I would be interested in your take on Harper's musical performance.