Schulmann: "...the Grits could be reduced to a rump."

In the first week of the election we have seen a large set of polling data coming out, including one released on September 7 by The Strategic Counsel Inc. surveying 45 battleground ridings. The data coming out of that poll paints a horrific picture for the Liberals "with the Tories in first place in the key swing constituencies."

And, to make matters worse, party leader Stephane Dion is clearly unpopular with Canadians. According to a poll released by EKOS Research Inc. on the same day, just 46 percent of Liberal supporters thought Mr. Dion would make the best prime minister, with 14 percent choosing New Democrat leader Jack Layton instead.

Moreover, the Grits' campaign performance has been less polished then in years past. And the press has taken notice, writing the beginnings of a storyline that will could conclude with the Liberals campaign in crisis. If this happens, then a Grit wipe-out is almost guaranteed.

But we're not there yet. There are various ways to estimate the number of seats a party will win. When extrapolating the current poll results, I use a methodology that weighs each party's chances in a riding from 0 to 100 percent. These numbers are modified as new numbers come out, with surveys being weighed based on size, how long ago it was and which company conducted the poll. Based on what the polls say at the moment, if an election were held today, the seat distribution would be:

Conservatives 165
Liberals 80
Bloc Quebecois 37
New Democrats 25
Independent 1

But those polls are only a snapshot of the present. It's still more than a month before Canadians go to the ballot boxes. And things will be different by then. I have run numerous scenarios based on what might happen in an election, assuming the current trends stay the same. And the most realistic looking scenario shows a dramatic result.

Conservatives 43 percent
Liberals 21 percent
New Democrats 19 percent
Bloc Quebecois 8 percent
Greens 8 percent

The median result using roughly the above numbers would mean:

Conservatives 205 seats
New Democrats 36 seats
Bloc Quebecois 35 seats
Liberals 31 seats
Independent 1 seat

The Liberals suffer because their vote is spread out over a lot more ground. During the last election, the party got more than 25 percent of the vote in 186 ridings and under 10 percent in 25 ridings. The New Democrats, meanwhile, got more than 25 percent in only 64 ridings while polling under 10 percent in almost 100 ridings.

That means, in this campaign, the New Democrats only need to worry about 50 to 60 ridings. The Liberals have to worry about a lot more. A drop in the Liberal vote quickly turns a lot of Liberal seats in Conservative seats.

And in about 40 to 50 ridings the New Democrats may benefit from strategic voting, with Liberals If it becomes clear a rout of the Liberals is underway, a lot of progressives may begin to vote New Democrat strategically to defeat the Conservatives. I haven't yet fully modeled this. But, if it were to occur in Vancouver and Toronto, this could add an additional 15 seats to the New Democrat total - taking away five from the Conservatives and 10 from the Liberals.

Bernard Schulmann, a policy and land use consultant, was recently the provincial campaign coordinator for Yes for BC-STV. In 1999, he predicted “the New Democratic Party is looking at four safe seats” in the 2001 election. “A complete shutout is not an impossibility.” Mr. Schulmann is presently a member of the provincial Liberals and federal Conservatives. He blogs at BC Iconoclast.