Very interesting Bernard but I would disagree with some of your assumptions, understanding that you are working with current polling not necessarily what will happen in May 2009.

First, I find it hard to see a single riding the Green Party can win, including Esquimalt-Royal Roads. The Greens only had 1 second-place finish in 2005 - West Vancouver-Garibaldi, while then-leader Adriane Carr came in third place in her home riding.

The Greens have simply not posted anywhere close to 15.5% in a provincial election and with a mostly unknown leader and little signs of a campaign or presence, Jane Sterk will have a hard time matching 2005's 9% in my view.

For example, since February the Greens have issued just 3 news releases, none earthshattering.

I agree that the NDP have to be very concerned about their current numbers and what an election would look like without improvements but the second factor is that with two parties running multi-million dollar campaigns with television, print and radio advertising, voter contact and province-wide tours, while the Greens struggle to reach $250,000, the numbers will change.

None of which is to say that your analysis doesn't give the NDP cause for concern, just that the numbers are highly likely to change prior to the election.

The one year period leading up to the May, 2005 election had much different dynamics than the current electoral landscape. Mustel had the Greens pegged between 8% and 12% during that time frame and the Liberals were also trailing for a good period of time. I wouldn't describe Adrianne Carr as very inspiring either and the Greens received 9.5%.

Currently the Greens are between 16% - 17% and Jane Sterk, is hardly a household name.

Bill might have one thing wrong though. Television, print, and radio advertising by the parties might not be as effective as he thinks. It's the "media coverage" of the parties that counts during the election period and I have an inkling that Sterk will receive her fair coverage during the campaign. Perhaps also likely a seat at the leader's debate.

Frankly, from what I have seen of Sterk, she comes across much better than either Campbell or James.

Remember, Gordon Wilson brought the Liberals from almost nowhere in 1991 to 33% of the vote. And that was not due to a Liberal multi-million dollar political advertising campaign (there was none) but rather "media coverage".

While the Greens may not win a seat in 2009, I have an inkling that they will break the 15% barrier this time around at the expense of both the NDP and the Liberals. The recent Green results in Vancouver Quadra as well as the Toronto federal ridings (Bob Rae's comes to mind) seems to echo signs of things to come.

Hi there Bill

Think of this as a wake up call for the NDP - I tried that in 1999 and had certain friends in the party that hated me for it. I remember at the time no one was willing to admit that the party was headed to a wipe out, every one said the election would turn it around.

Then there was the 2001 election with a stronger leader than the party has now and the party went into the tank much futher it should have.

I may not like the NDP, but I like a lot of New Democrats I just disagree with almost all their views on economics. I believe it is importnat to have a strong opposition to the government because it gives us better governance. This NDP caucus reminds me of the Wilson Liberal caucus - weak and not able to hold government to task let alone be a government in waiting. A stronger NDP will make Gordon Campbell an even better premier and I would be very happy with that.

As to Jane Sterk and her possible win, when I was going through all the ridings in the province, I was looking for the most potentially interesting one. A Green have a chance to win is interesting to me. I do believe the circumstances in Esquimalt Royal Roads make a Green win possible. The south island has a lot of serious people seeing the local Greens as a legtimate force in politics.

If John Horgan was the sitting MLA, I would not give Jane Sterk any real chance of winning. If the riding were one the Liberals honestly thought they could win (say Saanich South) I would not give Jane much chance, but Esquimalt Royal Roads has an interesting set of circumstances.

Do not discount the fact that Jane Sterk topped the polls as a Green in Esquimalt. I would never had predicted her being able to do that. Since then she has built a following of local people that are not Greens but will support her.

I also gave Jane Sterk low odds in being able to win the leadership of the Greens versus Ben West and Damian Kettlewell. Ben West works as an organizer and Damian Kettlewell is a very presentable (and seemingly well off) business Green. Jane surprised me at how well she understood what matters in campaigning and how she pulled off winning the Green leadership.

If the NDP were smart, they would have a strong star candidate run in Esquimalt Royal Roads and pension off Maurine Karagianis. But that would only make one more riding safer.

As someone outside of the NDP, I do have to wonder if anyone inside the party is raising hell and trying to get the party to apsire to something more than what it is now. I expect Corky Evans is doing this, but the party was not smart enough to draft him as leader in the run up to 2005.