And I have an uneasy feeling that Ms. Penn - whose claim to fame includes a "Lady Godiva" ride through the streets of Vancouver - will fall as fast as many of the party's past favoured suns.

I will have to choose my words with additional care here.

Given the prominence of TV news over the print media, and the innovative political use of such internet devices as YouTube, there is some considerable potential here for, ... ah, ... um, ... diverting the voter's attention from things like budget policies and defence white papers.

If the supposed fall off the pedestal can be staged as colourfully as the protest ride, perhaps even the US and other international media can be interested in covering the spectacle.

Surely Ms. Penn's run for the Libs is a case of naked ambition.

Dr. Briony Penn teacches at university, wrote a number of books and is very dedicated as far as environment stuff is concered. Unlike the harper person who mostly blusters. almost forgot, she writes articles for a local paer, alhough has decided not to do so as a candidate. So who does she run against? Lunn who was made a cabinet minister as the reform/alliance/ Conservatives were a bit short of MP's in the area of the country. I am not in waht will be her riding but if I was I would find it difficult not voting for her. Am I a Liberal plant.You got to be kidding.

and of course she mentioed getting back on her horse if Dion didn't do the environment stuf he has promised.

Memo to DL

Be advised that Penn is not "running against Lunn". She is running against the NDP, who placed second in this riding last time, while the Liberals pulled up the rear. Of the vote that is, not the horse.

In case you didn't know it DL, the real reason why Liberal "star" candidates tend to appear in NDP help or prospective ridings, from New Westminster-Coquitlam to Vancouver East, is because the entire Liberal "vote strategic" scam is designed to force down the NDP seat numbers, not to defeat Tory MPs. In fact, in many ridings it's designed to actually increase the number of Conservative MPs. That way the Liberals can fluff up the marketing of their own party to the urban stupid as the party to vote for in order to stop the "scarey Harper".

There goes Budd again. Liberals and NdP are fighting for the progressive vote -- not budd's regressive group. His logic would also follow that NdP would target only Con ridings and not, as he puts it, 'force down the Liberal seat #s'; it just so happens that the recent flurry of 'star candidates' excluding one floor crosser, had more than a foot in the progressive side of the spectrum. Haggard, Chan, Dosanjh and now Penn are progressives. Had they ran for the NdP (which at certain times in their lives would have been very possible) would you rail against them if the NdP chose they run in anything but CON strongholds? Besides, where does Penn work/live? Isn't it in and around mini-minister's riding?

I am fully aware of the numbers in Saanich and the Islands last time around. The area is quite heavy with folks who are right of center. We have family in that riding and lived there for about ten years. But there will be a lot of soul sercing by long time NDP folks. Nobdy is going to increase the votes for Lunn. She will take votes from him, and the Green's. But it's getting to be the time that the NDP and the Liberals in some rdings to get the best candidate from either party. The NDP have yet to bring their candidates forward.

Do you think the fact that Mr Spence is in Pakistan for two months might have made it a little difficult to run for parliament in SGI? After all, it is a hell of a commute to make every day and leaves little time for door knocking.

Besides, Penn is a solid Liberal candidate with a life long history of work in the riding. If i were Lunn, i would be running scared.

No one who knows Dave Kelly would suggest he could be pressured into supporting a particular candidate, let alone be arm-twisted to arrange a "elitist-driven" coronation. He's a guy who would seek out the very best candidate or candidates to seek the nomination and defeat Gary Lunn. Anyone who suggests otherwise is either mischievous or misinformed.

Politics is about getting votes. Briony Penn decided to run and she got people to support her....evidently a lot of people were interested in her candidacy. The fact that she managed to get more supporters than her opponent is not malicious or scandalous, she simply got more supporters than her opponent, and good for her. If people decided to support her, good for them. Maybe it speaks to her quality as a candidate that she garnered so much support from people at all levels of the party. People in a leadership position should be just as able to support a candidate as any other member, and if they get other people to support that decision, good for them, thats what political organization is about. People should stop looking for scandal where there is none. She signed up more supporters than Mr. Spence, something he recognized and withdrew...big deal. Good for her!

The last time this riding did not go to the right was in 1988 when Lynn Hunter of the NDP won with less of the vote than the PCs and Reform combined.

The Liberals have never managed to do well in this riding. They have never come within 5000 votes of the right. The best they have done was to get to 19 000 votes. They have never managed to even get to one third of the vote.

Face up to the facts people, this is a safe Conservative riding. Briony Penn might squeak ahead of the NDP, but that is all she will do.

If the Liberals wanted her elected, she should have run in Victoria, a much better fit for her.

The reality is that she is a sacrificial lamb for the Liberals so that they can say they are running more women and have some green creds to hide their failure on the issue when in government. They also do not need to worry about her actually winning and being in Ottawa

Bernard:

Your facts are out to lunch. Little Gary won in 2005 with 35% of the vote. He won in 2007 with 37% of the vote, the lowest percentage of any member of the Harper Cabinet. His is not a safe seat, it is vulnerable - big time.

The only reason he wins is because progressive voters have badly split their vote in the riding - 3 ways because of a strong Green presence. Ms. Penn seems like the best candidate the Liberals have ever fielded from the perspective of trying to gather this progressive vote together. With Jennifer Burgis, the two time, strong NDP candidate moving the Esquimalt to take on Keith Martin, the door is open.

Gary better put on his tiny running shoes and get to work.

There's one very good reason why Briony's attracting so much support. Briony. She's articulate, intelligent, accomplished and principled. It takes a lot of courage to seek public office these days, when so much negativity is directed at candidates - especially those who are not easy to define. Briony is a professor, a journalist, a broadcaster, a business person - and a soccer mom. She has a PhD and integrity -- and a marvellous sense of humour that will stand her in good stead during this campaign. And when Briony does come out ahead in the election, all of Canada will win.

It's more than reasonable to suggest Briony has an excellent chance of winning in Saanich Gulf Islands. Lunn's 37% will be very difficult to attain again without a fresh sponsorship scandal. I think it's reasonable to suggest his support will shrink by a few percentage points. If Briony holds the liberal vote, convinces the green vote she is a better conduit for progressive environmental change than a protest vote, while picking up the multitude of NDPers who question what exactly their party stands for, it will be Gary Lunn looking for his first real job.

The Conservatives clearly can't count or remember history. David Anderson held the Riding from 1968 to 1972 when he switched to lead the provincial liberal as the MLA from Victoria.

The Liberals came 2nd in 2004. We came just a few 100's votes behind the NDP in 2006. The Greens got 6,700 votes in 2006 (2,700 of them on Salt Spring) and the NDP 16,700. With a candidate of Briony's capabilities in the field (from Salt Spring Island, featured in Saanich's Centennial History book, plus loads of experience), it will clearly come down to a campaign to be won door to door, neighbourhood by neighbourhood.

I am one very long time Liberal in this Riding (since 1969) looking forward to defeating the Conversatives. And I was Mr. Warnke's Chief of Staff from Nov 91 to May 92, and he doesn't know what he is writing about!

First of all, the riding has only been around since 1987 - before that it was Esquimalt Saanich and Cowichan Malahat and the Islands.

Yes, Gary Lunn did not do well in 2004 and did not have a stunning win in 2006. But he scored 435 in 1997 and 2000.

Short of the NDP vote collapsing into very low numbers and all the voters going to the Liberals, there is no chance for a loss here for Gary Lunn.

In 1997 and 2000 the NDP really cratered - still the Liberal vote could not break the 1/3 mark.

IF the Liberals were running a national star candidate here, then I think they might have a chance. Other than that it would take a Conservative meltdown in BC to see the riding change hands.

But the polls show a reasonably consistent situation - Liberals marginally down from 2006, Conservatives up about 3 points and the NDP down as well.

If one looks at the Leger poll, the Liberals are running third in BC.

So, on what possible evidence can anyone think that Gary Lunn is not safe in this riding?

But there will be a lot of soul sercing by long time NDP folks. Nobdy is going to increase the votes for Lunn. She will take votes from him, and the Green's.

I am intrigued by DL's analysis here. Everyone else claims that Penn is a "progressive" candidate, whom the NDP voters ought to be looking at. So does DL. But wait. Penn has another ace in the hole, she is also attractive to the district's right wing voters as, according to DL, she will be taking votes away from Lunn.

How does all this figure? Is it because Penn is the kind of environmentalist who has no use for organized labour, so that she can appeal at one and the same time to left wingers who support environmental causes, and right wingers who don't like unions?

Well as a former Grit with years of real inside service . . . I agree with Allan Warnke. Secondly, the level of blog-reaction against Warnke's commentary tells me that the Martinite/Dionite forces are out in force.

Finally, federal Grits haven't exactly had the cleanest track record in BC, so I find this moral eco-high road a bit much.
If you don't believe me go ask "Greg the Dead Dog" and have him to show you his Prime Minister Paul Martin Xmas card.

One more interesting fact to throw into the debate is that the Liberals out-spent the NDP by more than $29,000 in the last election and still came third in Saanich-Gulf Islands. It doesn't appear that it was because the NDP didn't have the money either, as they ran a $14,000 surplus through the campaign.

Liberals spent $4.64 per vote vs. the NDP's $2.89 and they were behind them. This just isn't a Liberal riding.

Briony's one weakness against the last-time Liberal candidate Sheila Orr is probably in her ability to raise money. She will still probably find a way to come up with the $90,000 limit but, the dollars will be important.

With the NDP having as much money to spend nationally as the Liberals, for the first time ever, I can't see them wanting to lose their second place status to the Liberals or Penn. So, expect them to raise and spend the limit in Saanich-Gulf Islands and their candidate to be noticed.