Since Liberal MP Wajid Khan's formal defection to the Conservative frontbenches, there's been much buzz about how the New Democrats now hold the balance of power. But that's only if you can conjure up a scenario where both the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois together want to bring the government down - with Jack Layton and his caucus the only parliamentarians standing in their way. And since that scenario seems increasingly unlikely, the only winner here is Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The reason: because he now only needs one party, any party in the house, to support his government in order for it to survive. In other words, the Conservatives now have considerable more wriggle room to keep governing on an issue by issue basis.

Still, New Democrat leader Jack Layton is "hell-bent” on using his party's new strategic value to the Conservatives to take the government to task on the environment. But any belief that the NDP will be rewarded by drawing support away from the Greens will likely meet with disappointment. After all, the Green's popularity is drawn from across the political spectrum - not just the left. And it's the government, not the NDP, who will be judged on the environment file. Moreover, historically, when using the balance of power in minority Parliaments to effect change the NDP usually loses seats in the next election.

True, in the election following the last minority government the NDP was able to make gains because of a combination of a deep seeded contempt for the Liberals and a mistrust of the Conservatives. Since then, however, the Conservatives have made some progress toward appearing if not moderate, at least less scary. And every day the Liberals distance themselves a little further from their previous selves. So come the next election, Mr. Layton is less likely to have success positioning his party as a safe bet for those who have reservations about the alternatives.

In addition, since the prime minister can pick and choose among three parties to keep his government alive, the NDP will not have the power and profile it has commanded in previous minorities. So it will have even more trouble reaping any consequent electoral benefit.

As a result, once Mr. Layton has written the government's new environmental policy - one he will later claim "does not go far enough” - watch for him to do everything he can to stave off an election, claiming that he wants to make the minority Parliament work for "ordinary” Canadians. To do otherwise would bring on an election where the NDP will likely lose seats.

Of course, it's true that, between now and then, Canadians may be able to come up with reasons to vote "for” the NDP as opposed to voting against the alternatives. But that would require the NDP to understand, among other things, that their desire to redistribute wealth might be helped if it were prefaced by a credible plan to create or at least sustain it...and many Canadians don't like to be called ordinary.

Bob Russell, a businessman and former civil servant, was chief of staff for the provincial Liberals in Alberta from 1986 to 1989. In 2004, he ran for the federal Liberal nomination in Saanich-Gulf Islands.