There might be differences between ridings, but general observation suggests that the Tories are more likely to lose a few seats in BC next time than to pick up ones that they've lost, which suggests that they should concentrate on hanging onto a few particular ridings that they might conceivably lose next time.

In the last two elections, several Tory-held seats in BC were won by the Liberals and NDP on Vancouver Island, on the northern coast, in the Interior, and in suburban Vancouver -- BCers being contrarians as usual, turning away from the Tories now that they're the "establishment", which we'll presumably do to an even greater degree now that they're the government. The only Tory pickup in BC was Vancouver-Kingsway, which was won using a rather, um, creative campaign strategy. :)

Which seats do you have in mind as vulnerable?

The losses in the last election can be attributed to a combination of Zeisman (BC Southern Interior), a collapsing Liberal vote helping the NDP in tight ridings ( New West-Coquitlam, Van Island North ), a messed up nomination process ( Newton North Delta), and who knows what (West Van). All these ridings were close wins in 2004 (or improbable wins in Forseth's case).

I don't see any Tory wins last time that were close (except Nina, if she counts). So the only real vulnerabilities are Nina and Emerson. In that context, I'd expect the Tories to put a great effort into winning West Van -the only riding that they lost by less than a thousand votes.

I hope you're right obscurantist. And I hope that Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, where failed Baptist Minister Randy Kamp is the Tory anti-gay-rights incumbent, is one where the NDP can pick up another seat.

BTW, how are things on babble now that Michelle is the new audra, and is proving to be just as big a Liberal, and an even bigger NDP-baiter and hater than audra ever was.

"Which seats do you have in mind as vulnerable?

I don't see any Tory wins last time that were close (except Nina, if she counts). So the only real vulnerabilities are Nina and Emerson. In that context, I'd expect the Tories to put a great effort into winning West Van -- the only riding that they lost by less than a thousand votes."

Good point -- I couldn't think of any particular ridings that were narrow wins for the Tories last time. There are possibly a few that could be vulnerable if the opposition vote coalesces around one party, e.g., if the NDP or Liberals were to run a high-profile candidate like Paul Summerville or Frank Leonard in Saanich-Gulf Islands. But I guess that's unlikely unless one of the opposition parties becomes much less popular in general, which is itself unlikely.

Hey Budd, howyadoin'. Is your online persona male or female these days?

The Conservatives will take Richmond with an actual Richmond resident who reflects the attitude in Richmond.

North Van and West Van are winnable and will be won if John Weston and Cindy Silver have learned why they lost. Both came into the last election as rookies with rookie campaign teams who worked hard and learned a lot. That counts for a lot.

The Conservatives will have an edge everywhere as the "scary hidden agenda" label is now gone.

If Emerson wants to get re-elected, he needs to jump ridings. Van-Kingsway will NEVER elect him again. He would have a better chance running against Owen in Van-Quadra. Owen is defeatable, he was a fairly weak cabinet member and didn't do all that much for Vancouver --or at least could be painted that way-- and wouldn't be able to beat a strong minister like Emerson. Kingsway will be going to Waddell for sure.

If Emerson doesn't want to get re-elect, he could always take over VANOC from Furlong. He is experienced enough, and I don't think Furlong is too popular right now.

Publiceyefan:

Have to disagree. Kingsway has gone Liberal in the last four federal campaigns, electing Sohia Leung twice - who is hardly a luminary. Liberals remain the frontrunner in this seat, especially if they nomination someone from the Chinese community.

Owen won with the largest plurality in Western Canada for a Liberal MP. His seat is safe. He has run twice against a very strong contender. Emerson will not run again.

There are two schools of thought and neither
one is dominating. The Tories may have
disproved their 'scary image', but one gets
the sense that, for a honeymoon, their numbers remain awfully slight. I believe many in the centre that Harpor needs to court for a majority have been reading between the lines -- his contempt for parliament, his silencing of his own members, his twisting of the 'ethical promise', etc. BCers don't mind going against the stream, but they also are very polarized. I think the Tories have few seats they could lose and could pick up the two they lost, but it will all depend on how much more the NDP sells its soul for second place. They've already helped kill Kyoto, Kelowna, child care and all kinds of environmentally geared (energuide, 1-Ton challenge etc)... Do they continue on their road so that they can say they are the Opposition? Or do a majority of their supporters give a serious look at who (and who is very important) the Liberals choose as their leader? And do the Liberals overcome that arrogance and campaign with a platform for centre-centre-left Canadians? Right now the Tories and NDP are acting like school yard bullies...

The Conservatives will West Van if they stick with John Weston. He came from nowhere and a huge deficit to nearly knock off Blair Wilson and win the seat gaining more votes than John Reynolds did in 2004. Since that time John Weston has gained a ton of momentum and never stopped campaigning. He's had excellent press and gained the respect of party members and the electorate. Nobody can beat him in a nomination if the Conservatives choose to have one, they would be silly to change horses when Weston has all the momentum.