This isn't suprising at all. Lots of PC voters out here would rather Murray than Forseth.

I'm almost certain he'll come in third in this tight 3-way race.

With so many undecided voters, you can't read much at all into this automated survey other than it will be a tight 3-way race which any reasonably informed person could have told you without a poll.

Furthermore, this poll was conducted over 10 days ago, before the latest Liberal slide as seen in the SES polls and Martin's free fall in his leadership score compared to Harper.

Undecideds typically break for challengers instead of the incumbent governing party - look for the Conservatives and the NDP to get the lion's share of that undecided vote.

Can Murray win? Sure, it'll be a close race either way. Should she be opening her champagne yet? Hardly.

Agreed - this will be a long campaign ... but I stand by my prediction on Forseth ...

It is still a long time till the big event. The polls have some pretty scattered ideas. One political science professor today mentioned the last two on Dec 24. One showed the Liberals ahead by one point, the other from the same day showed the Liberals ahead by six points. He settled in to guesstimate the Island. Took him a couple of hours. In his view one seat on the Island is solid . Nanaimo NDP. Most other island seats are a fight between the NDP and the Conservatives. Maybe two on the Island might be three way battle. Let's see how correct his thoughts are.

Just remember what dogs do to polls. But it's always fun to speculate and when we get proven wrong we can all say. I told you so.

I'll let you know my thoughts at about 10 PM Pacific time on election evening. But I will suggest the BLOC will pretty well take Quebec.
Of course the leaders will all keep their seats.

The Liberals will not do well in BC, especially the Island. But nobody knows and if anyone really knew they wouldn't be telling us anyway

This isn't a poll, its self selected voter ID. With 3000 respondents, that means that 90%+ of targets hung up after hearing the "Hi, this is the Joyce Murray campaign" introduction. You can guess which 90%

Guy - you are incorrect.
It is a robot caller - I got called.

It is unidentified, and you just press numbers to answer the two q's

The fact that the respondent gets a choice of dialing a response rather than hanging up skews the sample, more so than a regular poll (hang up rates are far higher for automated messages than human callers, and real pollsters try to account for the human hang up factor). Also Joyce's campaign would have had to provide the phone numbers for the dialler to call. As the overall mission of the call was likely to identify supporters for EDay, the better polls would be selected.

Seems I was wrong about the pre-poll message. Thats surprising. In every campaign where I've been involved in these kind of ID efforts, the lawyers and 'clean campaign consultants' shot down attempts to do anonymous automated voter-ID drives disguised as a third party poll.

Foseth is weak.

I told Joyce a few weeks ago that her winning strategy was convincing NDP voters (who turfed her out provincially) to vote strategically. Hard, but not impossible, given her recent loss.

The strategic voting argument worked in the NDP's favour in the provincial; people wanted a real opposition. In this one, voters of New Westminter may want a government member.

The public has ignored the campaign up till now. *After* New Years there will be minor interest. There still is no public interest in this election or its issues. I think strategests are dreaming if they think that will change in three weeks...

At issue: Steven Harper does not poll well with those looking for soul.

At issue: Paul Martin has a stutter and does not poll as well with those looking for good speechafying.

On balance, the public as warmed to Martin and is still cold to Harper.

On the positive side: The CPC has tried to be policy oriented, although quite individualistic in nature that only favours the national voice when it is militaristic

On the positive side: The liberals have again demonstrated the believe in speaking for a national voice, but stands for individual right mostly through the Charter of Rights

On Balance, the Liberals still have the lead with no change from the beginning of this election. Once the public turns it attention to this election, for the first time, what they are likely to find is the CPC in negative mode, the NDP in panic mode, and the Liberals again speaking for a nation voice... same old same old and likely a Liberal minority government with a possibility of a majority if the voters say enough is enough.

"NDP in panic mode" Eugene Parks? What panic? Who? Where? Or is this the panic ... at your office?

By “panic”, I meant no disrespect to the NDP, but the much talked about squeeze on the NDP vote [to go Liberal so as not to split the vote and let the CPC win] will be on big time once the public sees the flurry of polls in the next three weeks. Even the polls pre - New Years suggest that strategic voting is in the back of left leanding voters’ minds.

The left will vote strategically, wheras the right in Canada will not.

In ridings like Victoria with Savoie ahead 2:1 over the next player there is little concern of splitting the vote; but elsewhere, NDP strategists will have something to worry about as voters’ panic and hence panic NDP strategists, as we get closer to voting day.

I think you can already see concern in Layton’s face. His face is betraying underlying stress.

George Bush. Why?

The Jan 23rd election is very likely to result in a minority government. By the time the next parliament is ready for another election, George Bush may be facing a Congressional jury. If Harper is firmly, and rightly, linked to George Bush, then Harper also is on trial with the Canadian voter for extremely bad judgment.

The US may see its first President removed from office... within 18 months. There is a real possibility of at least a serious attempt. And. Mr. Harper and team are closely tied to him. In the big picture beyond just the Jan 23rd election, there is much truth and strategic value in linking Harper to Bush.

In fact, and historically true, Mr. Harper is a George Bush Republican... as is the CPC election campaign chair (Reynolds)... and Stockwell Day before him.

*BUT*, Layton has got to stop calling it "American" ties but rather be specific and on point... the problem, and rightly so, is the tie to George Bush. Harper and team's ties to George Bush and Republicanism are the issue, not ties to the US. Whatever Bush links are firmly made now will have long-term voting value.

That got clipped, here in full:

Here is what both the Liberals and the NDP should add to what they are doing against Stephen Harper.

Follow this: The US mid-term congressional election is coming. There is likely going to be a shift in the balance of power away from the Republicans. With more power, the US Democrats would start impeachment hearings against George Bush for lying about the war and spying on Americans without a warrant. The impeachment will likely hold and there is also a possibility that the Senate will remove Bush from office - if the Democrats have enough Senators after the mid-term elections.

What the Canadian Liberals and the NDP must do is continue to tie Mr. Harper to George Bush. Why?

The Jan 23rd election is very likely to result in a minority government. By the time the next parliament is ready for another election, George Bush may be facing a Congressional jury. If Harper is firmly, and rightly, linked to George Bush, then Harper also is on trial with the Canadian voter for extremely bad judgment.

The US may see its first President removed from office... within 18 months. There is a real possibility of at least a serious attempt. And. Mr. Harper and team are closely tied to him. In the big picture beyond just the Jan 23rd election, there is much truth and strategic value in linking Harper to Bush.

In fact, and historically true, Mr. Harper is a George Bush Republican... as is the CPC election campaign chair (Reynolds)... and Stockwell Day before him.

*BUT*, Layton has got to stop calling it "American" ties but rather be specific and on point... the problem, and rightly so, is the tie to George Bush. Harper and team's ties to George Bush and Republicanism are the issue, not ties to the US. Whatever Bush links are firmly made now will have long-term voting value.

"On balance, the public as warmed to Martin and is still cold to Harper."

It must be incredible to live the life of Eugene Parks! I wonder what it would be like to ignore evidence contrary to your own personal biases and simply state your opinion as objective fact.

Go read the SES polls at sesresearch.com and you'll see that far from warming up to Paul Martin, the public has increasingly become unimpressed with his vision as well as his trustworthiness. Stephen Harper, on the other hand, is clearly gaining favour in the eyes of voters. In fact, Harper's overall leadership index score is now higher than Paul Martin's for the first time in the campaign.

Prattle on all you want about things that have nothing to do with this Canadian election, Eugene, and continue to ignore evidence that might expose your amateurish punditry for what it is - rubbish. You'll eat your words on Jan. 23rd when Stephen Harper is Prime Minister of Canada and Paul Martin is giving his resignation speech.

Let's not forget that the NDP lost New Westminster-Coquitlam by only 113 votes and that was with a candidate who had to build profile, and there were no Liberal scandals. Forseth, even after the pounding he took in the last election, again, has been non-existent. He only came out of the woodwork when there was a looming election. Murray closed down St. Mary's hospital and lost all credibility with the electorate, especially in New Westminster. Dawn Black has an excellent reputation and is well-liked. Public support is clearly there and continues to build for the NDP, soft-liberals are moving over and will push Black over the top. The Liberals were third with their high-profile candidate in the last election. Murray's poll is targetted and not worth paying attention to. We will likely end up with another minority Liberal government, but one that does not include Joyce Murray, and does include Dawn Black.

"Go read the SES polls at sesresearch.com and you'll see that far from warming up to Paul Martin, the public has increasingly become unimpressed with his vision as well as his trustworthiness."

I read all the polls... CPAC giving the most interesting public numbers.

As far as amateurish, the conservative movement has been run by the most high-schoolish group for nearly 15 year now. We are seeing a slight shift now but unfortunately to pure individualism and anti-establishment thinking... pure Bush Repulicanism on the scary side.

What you are missing in the polls is that there is a huge voting demographic that simply will not warm to Mr. Harper. There is a demographic that is huge that avoids the camera on the street (they are not the angry crowd). They also see Harper as soulless.

The leadership numbers are from those watching the election race *before* New Years and not of those involved in life during the holidays... those Canadians living Canadiana are not in the public polling numbers. Harpers only hope is that those people don't vote... cause they don't like him. Harper reminds them of every person they have ever met that will not listen nor work with anyone else's opinion. He is a that brick-wall personality that people of feeling and soul simply don't want to relate to.

Our economy is the envy of the world, we have surpluses year after year, unemployment is at historic lows, and the dollar is strong.

That was all the case in the USA too before an extreme right winger, running on Military spending and tax cuts took the helm.

I just don't understand why - when we've seen the results to the south with that concoction - why anybody would want to us to head down that same path.

"I just don't understand why - when we've seen the results to the south with that concoction - why anybody would want to us to head down that same path."

That's the message... link that with Bush and you have the whole show. Canadians have not had it as good in over 30 years.The Americans have not been in deeper trouble since the Nixon years...

When you say "Canadians have not had it as good in over 30 years", you must surely mean Liberal MPs, ex-Liberal MPS, Liberal lobbyists and assorted Liberal hangers-on. 'Cuz you can't mean the rest of us slacked-jawed yokels who watch the Entitlement Crowd operate in Ottawa with utter dismay. But I guess if I was one of you, maybe I'd resort to the "sky will fall" approach too, because what else in the world can you possibly offer anymore?

Drummer writes: "Canadians have not had it as good in over 30 years", you must surely mean Liberal MPs..."

Your comment above demonstrates part of the CPC problem. Unempolyment in Canada is at a 31 year low. The budget is balanced and the debt declining. The CPC's failure to see things from a Canadian, rather than a partisan political (read ideological) perspective serves only the neo-cons and not Canada.

I have often found Eugene Parks's postings interesting, but his contributions to this thread appear to have been written by either Terry Milewski of the CBC or else Jamie Elmshirst. Not that there's any real difference there.

I agree with other posters that at 3000 so-called respondents this is not a poll of any sort. Rather, it's some kind of voter ID gadget with dembodied voices and commercial software and "big mouth" calling devices, etc., etc. The numbers produced are, in fact, totally useless in terms of gauging overall strength in a riding. To pick a riding for strategic emphasis more serious and less biased techniques would have been used, and there is no doubt the Liberals have those techniques at their disposal since they targetted this riding last time and it was in fact very close.

So the Liberals DO know something, but the stuff they know is not the manipulated garbage info they put out for public consumption. The question that should be put to people like Joyce Murray, and for that matter, The Great Dave Haggard, is whether or not Marissen or Elmhirst or Bornman ever showed them the real numbers, or do they just get the fake data that's let out for public consumption?

That hardly seems like a reason to support a party that would endorse Bush's Balistic Missle Plan and start a new arms race, or join Bush in backing out of Kyoto, or cancel the entire national child care plan, or take away gay rights .... this is so backwards it is stunning.

I can't stand the thought of sorting through all these issues again - a Harper goverment will be dark and backward days for Canada.

The stress you see in Layton's face is the result of his party being stuck at 14% no matter what they do or say. Unless something changes dramatically before the 23rd, the NDP will be looking for yet another leader. Go for it, Budd.

Steve Hopkins's standards of intellectual honesty have not changed just because it's now 2006.

Hi party's sacrificial lamb in the North Fraser Valley just got his first sign up in time for New Year's Eve!

Steve should take a look at the new Tory ad called "They'll go Neg". The only problem with it is that it only shows people Paul Martin's picture, instead of his along with Steve and Shirley!

Steve.
I find your comment about the NDP at 14 percent, interesting. I've never seen a poll with that number. Where did you find it? The Ipso Reid announced to day showed the Liberals and Conservatives about equal. But the kicker of course is the margin of error. maybe you were looking at the NDP and dropping them down the margin as well, while the Conservatives were being raised by the margin. The pool that counts has a ballot booth in it, all others sort of come and go

damn Ipsos are making a lot of hay for a one point up, one point down poll ... which, like you say is within the margin.

bunch of scammers on the take over at Ipsos

Well, DL, I stand by what I said. Steve Hopkins and Shirley Chan aren't going to change their standards just because the year turned over. It's the same old game of garbage data, grotesquely manipulated "information", deception, smoke and mirrors, you name it. And there are people like the CBC's Terry Milewski who will be happy to peddle the product for them and others in the Liberal Party.

The voter's uneviable task is to sort through this fog of war that is being pumped in their direction, in many cases by the very same fifth estate institutions who are supposed to be helping them to separate fact from fiction!

Bud write, "I have often found Eugene Parks's postings interesting, but his contributions to this thread appear to have been written by either Terry Milewski of the CBC or else Jamie Elmshirst."

... smiles, Bud.

I'm learning at this game just like everyone else and it seems to me that every good political comment (or decision) must start with the facts and be clear from the voters' persepctive. Both the political far right and the left are ideological in nature and so seem to filter the facts through philosophy rather than through the perspective of what the voters might be thinking. I've come to the conclusion that the voters' perspective is a right and proper perspect more valid than the ideologies of the right and the left. i.e. the center-left to the center-right, which represents the great mass of Canadiana is more on the mark than either the left or right parties in Canada... and that is why voters are willing to sacrifice (vote strategically) and give up a few of the good points available from the left order to stop extremes from the far far right.

Eugene, please don't make the mistake of believing that those parites and their pundits who officially eschew any ideology or philosophy in favour of a doctrine of limitless pragmatism are somehow devoid of bias and prejudice, or are somehow more in tune with facts and reality, or are somehow more respectful of the voters.

The Liberal Party hasn't governed Canada for 75 of the last 105 years because they felt duty bound to level with the voters and tell them the truth about the party's intentions or it's record. They sure as Hell haven't gained a reputation for respecting those they govern!

When one is seriously disillusioned with one party, in which a great deal of time was spent and there was a high level of committment, one is hardly in a state of mind to objectively assess the merits of another. Rather like someone who has just broken up after a long relationship or gotten a divorce, a certain time away from it all may be needed to clear one's head.

Budd,

An excellent post!

And also the problem!

What the left and far right have done in response to the Liberals wavering is, in general, to offer ideology. The public can see through and finds it just as distasteful. Below is an illustration on the most important issue to Canadians.

As an illustration, in the last five elections the NDP has said "not for profit healthcare". That statement is an example of a messaging problem. For instance, take just a simple bandaid applied in a hospital. The supplier of that bandaid is making a profit. The plastic company supplying the bandaid company is making a profit. The oil company supplying the plastic company is making a profit. The whole system is making a profit. The public sees through the rhetoric “"not for profit healthcare"; although, they completely agree with the correct idea no Canadian should ever be denied service nor go into poverty because of healthcare. However, the profit argument is shallow. So, the ideological argument for the NDP wins few votes – even though the NDP is on topic (almost).

On the other hand the Liberals argue for service that does not cost except through taxation... which is more to the point.

In contrast, the CPC argues that profit can show up at the point of service, which does not sit well with many Canadians... it is the counter point to the NDP.

The ideological argument of the far right and the left just don't add value to the debate nor address what Canadians want(see as relevant). So, the voters will vote Liberal when it comes to healthcare even when the Liberals struggle with, even mis-handle, the issue because the Liberals’ talking points are on-point when it comes to the realities of the issue.

As far as winning voters, most realize that unless politicians at least start from a solid position, only then is there the possibility of a solition. If polititions start from a flawed argument, then they will only get worse once is power… that is how the voters see political debates. The left and right start from a flawed perspective - from the voters’ perspective.

I'm not saying that the NDP nor the CPC have their heart entirely in the wrong place. I'm saying that both the NDP and CPC fail to see things as the voters see it and instead see thing ideologically and so fail to see how the pragmatic Canadian voters interprets what the NDP and CPC are saying.

"damn Ipsos are making a lot of hay for a one point up, one point down poll ... which, like you say is within the margin....bunch of scammers on the take over at Ipsos"

I think, but could be wrong, that Ipos was the Liberal polling fav under Chretien but was given the boot a while ago.

Since being given the boot their numbers have been way different than the rest of the pack... throughout this entire election, the last one too, ... even now. That is why you have to watch for changes within the same polling company asking the same questions and not switch as the popular press did last week.

I'm not saying there is no information in Ipsos data... but the information is not what some think it is.