Green could win Center, and with his friends in the media, would probably lead the NDP to a big gain in BC.

The NDP insiders likely know this, and I'm sure many of them have been looking for a star to keep Svend out of the riding. Its farely obvious that they have waited until after the municipals for a reason, and that was to either score Green or Stevenson if they lost. Svend is not the image the NDP wants to portray, even if he should be commended over the years for his activism, he is an outsider in a tough Vancouver riding which is fairly centrist.

I agree that Robinson would face more of an uphill battle in Van Centre than what he, or his supporters anticipate.

However, Robinson was an early backer of Jack Layton for the NDP leadership, and I don't see Jack repaying that debt by trying to openly block Robinson's candidacy. If for no other reason than to do so would invite a Titanic response from Robinson's supporters in the NDP, including the entire Rabble crowd.

Much of this talk of Jim Green running in Vancouver Centre is just that. I haven't heard it from any other news, although I'll admit the media hasn't been reporting too much on local nominations. Jim Green certainly has the ability to appeal more to centrist voters, yet I wouldn't discount Svend Robinson. He may be rather left wing so on the surface this is bad news, but one has to remember he won Burnaby-Douglas in 1993, 1997, and 2000 when the party fared poorly in BC, so don't underestimate him. He is well-liked by many. If Jim Green runs in Vancouver, they will find another seat for Svend Robinson to run in. The problem with this is almost all the winneable NDP ridings with exception of perhaps Nanaimo-Alberni have nominated their candidates so Vancouver Centre is the only winneable riding left for him. Besides Jim Green seems like a person more interested in local than federal issues, while Svend is mostly interested in federal as opposed to local. As for Tim Stevenson, I don't even know if he is federally an NDP. He was generally one of the more centrist members so much like Ujjal Dosanjh and Larry Campbell, he very well may be a Liberal federally. Since the BC Liberals are to the right of the federal Liberals, many left leaning Liberals vote NDP provincially, so Ujjal Dosanjh's decision to switch to the Liberals federally is really not that uncommon as there are many voters who go NDP provincially and Liberal federally.

Miles, we sometimes have to wonder whether Holman is reporting on news or creating it. If its the later, well,

Vancouver Center and Burnaby Douglas are too very seperate ridings. VC has hosted the likes on Kim Campbell, and has elected a BC Liberal provincially, whereas as BD once elected Tommy Douglas and is nealry always a strong NDP territory. So I think the only chance Svend has is if the Tories pull in 25% in Vancouver which is plausible. (Gary Mitchell pulled in 10K of votes, which was fairly good for someone whose resume consisted of organizing Karaoke nights)

Daniel Grace - you have some good points, but actually Burnaby-Douglas elected three BC Liberal MLAs last provincial election (John Nuraney Burnaby-Willingdon, Harry Bloy Burquitlam, Richard Lee Burnaby North), while in the last federal election, the Liberals came within 600 votes of winning despite the whole controversy of their candidate Bill Cunningham being parachuted in. Besides I crunched the numbers for Burnaby-Douglas and Vancouver Centre and I got for Burnaby-Douglas BC Liberals: 46.2%, BC NDP 43.6%, while for Vancouver Centre: BC NDP 43.8%, BC Liberals 43.2%, remember Vancouver-Burrard went BC Liberal, but Vancouver-Fairview went BC NDP. Although you are quite right that up until recently Burnaby-Douglas was a very strong NDP riding and the recent provincial results are largely due to demographic shifts in the population.

I agree Daniel that Burnaby and downtown Vancouver are totally different political landscapes at least at the Federal level. While the downtown area has elected some provincial NDP legislators, including Gary Lauk, Emery Barnes, and Tim Stevenson, it has never sent an NDP MP to Ottawa. The closest was a byelection in the late 1980s when Joanna den Hertog ran against Kim Campbell.

Also, I think that Svend Robinson and his supporters may discover, much to their horror, that the West End LGBT vote is very much attached to the Liberal Party and isn't prepared to "waste time" considering the local candidates.

I hate to say this, but if Jim Green ever wants to run federally, he will run under Liberal's banner. Larry Campbell has promised this to MM.

I agree with MM that Jim green would win under the Liberal banner more likely than the NDP banner. Besides the federal Liberals are broad based party that includes both centre-left people such as Ujjal Dosanjh, Dave Haggard, Bob Rae, while centre-right people such as Keith Martin, Belinda Stronach, Scott Brison. In fact I believe the Liberals are the best party for people from both the BC NDP and BC Liberals and likewise at a municipal level for people from both Vision Vancouver and the NPA. They are the only moderate party around now that the Old PCs have been swallowed up by the far right Canadian Alliance. Besides the Green Party and perhaps the Liberals under Trudeau, Canada hasn't had a centre-left party as the NDP is an ideological left wing party. Likewise the Progressive Conservatives, not the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives were centre-right. Even though I wouldn't vote for Jim Green municipally I would happily welcome him to join the federal Liberal Party, which is a big tent party that is reflective of what Canada is.

If Jim Green runs for the NDP, then Larry Campbell would be a liar.

Larry has told everyone that Jim Green has seen the light and is really now a Paul Martin Liberal. Sound crazy? Well, that's what Larry says.

If Jim Green runs for the NDP, Larry would have some serious egg on his face. It would be Larry's job to get Jim defeated.

For those saying Jim Green is a federal Liberal, they need to re-think that position. Jim Green is a card carrying member of the provincial NDP. Under the NDP consitution that automatically makes you a Federal NDP member. Under NDP rules and I believe federal Liberal rules, you can only belong to one party at a time. Since the NDP supplied Jim Green with his municipal campaign staff, I know Jim Green isn't a Liberal. He would be breaking the law if he was. Like could you imagine him holding a Liberal card and Libby Davies knew about it! Moreover, the Unions heavily donated to Green's Mayoral campaign and he knows the Unions traditionally support the NDP. Not only is Jim Green a New Democrat so is his wife, Roberta and the one he mentored Jenny Kwan. Green will not move over to the Liberals federally.

It is true party membership in BC NDP automatically makes one a federal NDP, yet if we look at the stats, there are clearly more British Columbians who vote NDP provincially than federally so I suspect that many of the BC NDP members are left leaning Liberals. Likewise the BC Liberals get more than either the Conservatives or Liberals do on their own, but less than the combined vote. Ujjal Dosanjh had to give up his NDP membership to run federally, but that doesn't mean he didn't vote for them last provincial election. Assuming that party membership is representative of their voter base, I would guess 1/3 of those who helped out the NDP in the last provincial election vote Liberal federally while of BC Liberals about 2/3 vote Conservative and 1/3 vote Liberal. Likewise amongst federal parties, Liberal vote splits 50/50 between the provincial NDP and provincial Liberals while Conservative voters overwhelmingly go BC Liberals and NDP supporters overwhelmingly go BC NDP. Off course Jim Green as a card carrying NDP member won't admit to supporting the federal Liberals if he does, but one should consider there is a long list of former provincial NDP members running for the Liberals (Dave Haggard, Shirley Chan, Lyle MacWilliam, Bill Barlee just to name a few. Even Mike Harcourt along with former NDP premiers Roy Romanow and Bob Rae voted Liberals last federal election). In fact it seems that most people who jump from provincial to federal politics run under the Liberal banner, even back in the former days of the Social Credit (Bill Vander Zalm ran as Liberal in 1968). The few BC Liberals (Al Horning and Blair Suffredine) who ran for the Conservatives ran for the former Progressive Conservatives, not the Reform/Alliance party in Conservative drag. Also for progressive voters, even if they don't like the federal Liberals, there is only one party that can stop Stephen Harper from becoming prime-minister and that is the Liberals.

"... Ujjal Dosanjh had to give up his NDP membership to run federally, but that doesn't mean he didn't vote for them last provincial election. ...
(Dave Haggard, Shirley Chan, Lyle MacWilliam, Bill Barlee just to name a few. Even Mike Harcourt along with former NDP premiers Roy Romanow and Bob Rae voted Liberals last federal election). ..."

Posted by Miles Lunn at November 28, 2005 01:33 PM

Ujjal Dosanjh would not have been voting NDP on May 17th. His move to the Liberals was well underway by 1995 and 1996 as I have reported in another thread.

As for Mike Harcourt, I don't think he has changed parties, any more than Glen Clark has. Romanow and Rae are different stories.

Miles,

Shirley Chan had left the NDP quite some time ago. It was over the way, they decided to push Mike Harcourt out. You are correcxt she ran as a Liberal but she doesn't hold a NDP membership. I'm not certain if Dave Haggard was ever a NDP'r but he may have been and probably was. But he wasn't when he ran for the federal Liberals.

I would be shocked if an NDP Premier such as Mike Harcourt publicly announced support for the federal Liberals. In fact from what I've been told, he was very upset with Ujjal moving over to the Liberals federally. In fact, if he was to endorse a federal Liberal it would have been Ujjal and he never did this. Moreover, he wouldn't endorse Shirley Chan either even though Shirley was his chief-of-staff when he was Vancouver Mayor.

Miles can you cite where you are obtaining your info as I would love to see where it had Mr. Harcourt endorsing the Liberals as you claim?

jamie lee

Mike Harcourt never publicly endorsed the federal Liberals, but I did see his picture at a couple of Liberal fundraiser events on the webpages of Liberal candidates. The point I am making is BC has always been a two party system, one on the left one on the right, while federally is a three party system of one exclusively on the right, one exclusively on the left, and one that straddles the centre. It is true Shirley Chan left the NDP quite a while ago, but I wouldn't be surprised if she voted NDP provincially. There are many left leaning Liberals who vote NDP provincially. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if Hedy Fry or David Anderson went NDP provincially as I know both of them have been quite critical of Gordon Campbell. I think you are right Budd that Ujjal was moving away from the NDP provincially, but I would be very surprised if he voted BC Liberals in the last provincial election. Essentially the Liberals are to the left of the provincial Liberals but right of the provincial NDP, while the provincial Liberals are to the left of the Conservatives, but to the right of the federal Liberals, which is why you get some crossover between the federal Liberals and provincial NDP. In fact they main reason Ujjal and Mike Harcourt ran under the NDP is they preferred them over the Social Credit since in the 80s there was no centrist option and even now it is questionable as to whether there is one or not. I myself would have gone Social Credit, but I am a blue Liberal rather than a progressive Liberal. In fact if Peter MacKay were the Conservative leader, I would probably go Conservative. I know several federal Liberals and they are almost evenly split between BC Liberals and BC NDP in terms of how they vote provincially.

CBC just posted on its website www.cbc.ca that Svend Robinson is the NDP candidate for Van-Centre. Thatt means the nomination deadline must have passed and Jim Green chose not to submit a nomination by deadline.

Hedy vs Svend. My money's on Hedy!

Geez Hedy "Crosses are burnin' in PG" Fry or Svend "sticky fingers" Robinson.

Damn tough choice for who to root for (of course the 100 to 1 shot of the Conservative up through the middle is rather nice in a day dream-like wish).

I would wager that Svend will squeak by Hedy only because Feb Lib voters will be dragging their feet to vote for Hedy or to help Hedy win.

Whereas the lefty branch of the Dippers (who appear to dominate in Vancouver)will fall over themselves with glee to get rid of the Libs and elect one of their "stars".

Most of your points Rick are pretty accurate, but as someone who actually lives in this riding (If we used the US system of voting for candidates separately from parties, I would vote for the Conservative candidate as even as someone who plans to vote Liberal, I cannot stand Hedy Fry), there are some obstacles to the NDP winning. The Conservatives won't be much of a factor as they have very little support in large cities such as Vancouver and Toronto. Social conservatism scares the hell out of people in those two cities that any party that has a social conservative bent will lose badly regardless of people's economic views. The main problem for the NDP is the expensive condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. These went heavily for Lorne Mayencourt in the last provincial election and Sam Sullivan in the recent municipal election, so Svend Robinson will likely get clobbered in the polls in those parts of the riding. While he will likely do well in the West End, I should note that Hedy has been very supportive of the gay community so not all of the gay vote will go for Svend. The one reason Svend might win is I know some Conservatives who Hedy so much they would consider going NDP just to defeat her. Also Svend supporters will likely show up no matter what, whereas Hedy supporters will probably have to be dragged out to the polls. I would even venture to say that if it is sunny on election day, Hedy Fry has a better chance at being elected than if it is raining or snowing as voter turnout is usually higher when the weather is nicer. My view, which Carolyn Parrish for all her silly views, suggested is NDP and Conservative supporters will show up no matter what, whereas Liberal supporters will be more likely to not show up.

I didn't know where to post this, but I thought I would let everyone know, the election is official now. The Liberals were defeated in a non-confidence motion of 171-133. We'll find it tomorrow what day it will be on, but I have heard January 23rd is the most likely date.

Whew! Thanks for letting us know, Miles. The suspense was killing me!

Miles I agree that NDP and Conservative voters will show up on election day whereas the Liberal support is far softer.

Core-voter turn out I think will be what wins Svend the seat, that and the Tory vote in Van Centre if it goes anywhere will not go to Hedy but to Svend just to ensure Hedy is gone.

I also think some of the fiberal pundits on this board need to be eating some crow (just like all the lefties who were predicting Green and cope/vission 9 to 1 in Van City).

The latest batch of polls show the Tories doing well. The Tories both nationally and in BC are in good shape.

Check out the numbers:
11/28/2005 (Nov.21-27)- Pollara (Canada): 36 Libs; 31 Cons; 16 NDP; 14 BQ

11/28/2005 (Nov.21-24)- Environics (Canada): 35 Libs; 30 Cons; 20 NDP; 14 BQ

11/26/2005 (Nov.22-24)- Ipsos-Reid (Canada): 34 Libs; 30 Cons; 16 NDP; 15 BQ

11/16/2005 (Nov.11-16)- Robbins (Canada): 32.10 Libs; 32.21 Cons; 22.30 NDP; 13.33 BQ

11/28/2005 (Nov.21-27)- Pollara (BC): 30 Libs; 31 Cons; 34 NDP

11/28/2005 (Nov.21-24)- Environics (BC) 36 Libs; 34 Cons; 28 NDP

11/26/2005 (Nov.22-24)- Ipsos-Reid (BC): 26 Libs; 33 Cons; 33 NDP; Green 8

11/16/2005 (Nov.11-16)- Robbins (BC): ? Libs; 34 Cons; 32 NDP

11/28/2005 (Nov.21-27)- Pollara (Ont): 42 Libs; 38 Cons; 17 NDP

11/16/2005 (Nov.11-16)- Robbins (Ont): 37 Libs; 35 Cons; ? NDP

Pollara: www.pollara.ca/Library/News/Nov28Poll.html
Environics: www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/11/28/poll051128.html
Ipsos: www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4d3658f6-41f7-48a2-ab1d-96e0ff52a775&p=1
Robbins: www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_210.html

I think the Liberals will do well in Vancouver proper and the more densely populated suburbs i.e. North Shore, Richmond, maybe Burnaby, the Tri Cities, and parts of Surrey. They certainly won't win in the Interior, rural Vancouver Island, or Fraser Valley. And neither will they take every riding in the GVRD, in fact they won't take more than 4 out 5 in the city proper as Libbby Davies certainly won't lose her seat. I think the one thing that could hurt the Tories is the nasty attack ads aren't suppose to come out until the last week, which will give the Tories little time to respond. With the attack ads being fresh in voter's minds, this may scare some moderate Conservatives and NDP voters over to the Liberals to keep Stephen Harper out of power. If Harper wants to win, he needs to stay behind in the polls right up to election day as the moment people fear a Stephen Harper victory, they turn against him, whereas if they don't think he will win, people are more likely to vote Conservative.

Well, Miles I think your boy Stephen's on the right track (by your logic). I'm thinking an appropriate slogan might be -

VOTE HARPER - HE HASN'T GOT A CHANCE!

I think your way too opportunistic on your Liberals touting Miles. The NDP will be picking up those seats in Burnaby and Surrey. The Liberals will be lucky if they hang onto Don Bells Riding, and its more likely to go back to its Tory self. I think the only seats they are guaranteed to win are Van South and Van Quadra, the rest will be going all dippers.

Dan, are you predicting only two liberal seats in BC?

I agree that Burnaby and Surrey could just as easily go NDP, all I am saying is the Liberals have a chance there. I am not saying they will win anything, although I do think they will knock off Gurmant Grewal as he has been a total embarassment while this riding has a large Indo-Canadian community so strong connections in the community is need to win. The NDP candidate who lives in the Delta portion doesn't have as strong a connections with the Indo-Canadian community as the Liberal candidate. Lets remember minorities are often undersurveyed in polls, yet voter turnout amongst the Indo-Canadian community is quite high. Don Bell won't lose his seat and I think the Liberals will pick up West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast. Tories are strongest amongst those making around $80,000 a year; those making over a $100,000, which a lot of them on the North Shore are, overwhelmingly go Liberal. The Rich care more about a strong economy than the corruption issue and so with a strong economy now that will help the Liberals. Besides both the Conservative candidates are religious fundamentalists, which might sell well in Abbotsford, but not the North Shore. In sum most of Greater Vancouver is too urban for the Conservatives. Polls have shown their strength is in rural areas, mostly amongst men, whites, and people over 55. They are third amongst those under 30, third amongst new immigrants, third in large urban areas, and only slightly ahead of the NDP amongst women voters. Also the Liberals won't lose Richmond either. The racist past of the Reform Party hasn't been forgotten by the Chinese community, so despite the fact more Chinese lean to the right than left, they won't go Conservative for a few more elections. Raymond Chan won by 9% and with a religious fundamentalist running against him this time, I expect him to win be even more. I also don't think Hedy Fry is necessarily toast as there are a lot of high end condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour who won't go NDP, while at the same time the riding is way too urban for the Conservatives.

I think you may be right on Richmond and the north shore is a coin toss, and if they do pull McCallum, he could pull up to two in Surrey. But I do think the NDP is going to take all of the island seats, and perhaps some of the coast as well.

However, I'm curious how ethnic communities will react to the Tories anti-corruption campaign and new pro-immigration stances. Harper's pulling out all the tax breaks on this one...

A few things:

1) Jim Green has been a member of the NDP for over 20 years. He hosted an NDP event that I organized back in May. He RAN for the NDP in 1996. His entire mayoral campaign staff was taken from provincial office and NDP affiliated Labour. The guy would never run as a Liberal, Larry Campbell whatever.

2) My guess is that Green would have eaily taken out Fry; and that Svend will lose by 2000-3000 votes. Sadly...

3) The Liberals has made the campaign period so long because they know the longer it goes, the better they look. Look for them to rebound late, and for the NDP's support to collapse in the lower mainland (but to increase in the interior, the north and the island).

I am inclined to agree with David's forecast for Vancouver Centre. From everything I can observe, the West End LGBT vote is a very much 'downtown', lifestyle-oriented vote. They are not the least bit interested in philosophical treatises on democratic socialism, or carefully weighing the merits of the various local candidates on issues, including LGBT issues, or hearing a former MP's boring recitation of all the many long hours he spent over more than twenty years attending all kinds of incredibly earnest meetings discussing ... They want the Liberals to win and that's it.

And unless Robinson's campaign team smartens up and toughens up, Hedy will likely be re-elected. However, if Robinson has learned something while he's been away, he could surprise me and come out swinging, calling Fry an undisguised apologist for Liberal corruption and general crumbiness. If he plays it that way, ... things could be different.

As for the rest, I think that the Liberals will be shooting for a maximum of about 5, the NDP will be landing in the 10 to 15 range, say 12, and the Conservatives will be good for 18 to 21 or so. I don't buy the Liberal North Shore speech, as Silver may be religious but is also a lawyer with dirt on the bureaucracy. As for the bigger contests in the GVRD, the big Liberal breakthrough into full Toronto-ization of the BC immigrant vote, especially the South Asian vote, had to happen last time. And it missed, it only got a South Vancouver beachhead, not a hammerlock onto Surrey. The result now is a fading beachhead the party will have to fight for. Dosanjh will be re-elected, but it will be a pyrrhic victory in that he will be there to embarass the Liberals and repell voters for another few years.

So, Liberals likely in Quadra, Centre, South and Richmond, and maybe one other somewhere. The NDP/TOry picture is highly unsettled in terms of particulars, but the two real bellweathers to watch are Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission and the Cariboo-Prince George and KamloopsNorth Thompson seats. Is the NDP provincial breakthrough into the Cariboo carrying over federally at all, that's a big question. Is the NDP regaining any of it's ground in the southern interior around Kamloops and Shuswap?

I think the Liberals will win more than 5, while 12 I think is rather optimistic for the NDP. Even though the two North Shore ridings should be tought battles, the demographics of the riding clearly favour the Liberals as they are really too urban for the Conservatives, while the high number of people making six figure salaries also favours the Liberals as well since polls have repeatedly shown those making over $100,000 vote Liberal not Conservative. In Vancouver, the Liberals will definitely win Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver South, while the NDP will definitely win Vancouver East, while Vancouver Centre and Vancouver-Kingsway will be Liberal/NDP battles with the Liberals having a slight edge in both ridings. Burnaby will probably stay NDP, but considering how well the provincial Liberals did there, I think the Liberals picking up one or both of the Burnaby ridings shouldn't be ruled out. In the Tri-Cities, James Moore will hold his riding while New Westminster-Coquitlam is wide open and a lot will depend on the national campaign. Whichever party has the lead in BC on election day will probably take the riding. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission could go either NDP or Conservative with the Liberals playing the role of kingmaker since if they gain votes, it will depend on which party it comes at the expense of, while if they lose votes, then to which party. In Richmond/Delta, Raymond Chan will be re-elected, while John Cummins will also be re-elected. Surrey will be a major battleground, as Gurmant Grewal will likely lose his seat, Nina Grewal will face a tough fight, I highly doubt the Conservatives will take Surrey North as this is one of those ridings where the populist vote swung over from the NDP to the Reform Party and has likely swung back. Russ Hiebert is probably the most likely to hold his riding, but even that is not a guarantee. The Liberals almost certainly won't win Surrey North, while Newton-North Delta I would say is their best chance in Surrey, followed by Fleetwood-Port Kells, while South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale is winneable, but challenging. The NDP will likely take Surrey North and could take Newton-North Delta (I think they will beat Gurmant Grewal this time, but still finish behind the Liberals), while Fleetwood-Port Kells is possible, but highly unlikely. The Conservatives will take the remaining Fraser Valley ridings. In the Interior, Skeena-Bulkley Valley and British Columbia Southern Interior are really the only ridings in play. I think the NDP has a good chance at picking up British Columbia Southern Interior, while Skeena-Bulkley Valley is winneable for the Conservatives, but I would be very surprised after turfing their incumbent 17 months ago if they re-take it. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo is really not an NDP riding, but rather went NDP from 1980-2000 due Riis Nielsen's popularity. Unless the NDP can persuade him to run again, they won't win it. Cariboo-Prince George actually would have gone BC Liberal had it existed provincially since even though the NDP narrowly won both Cariboo seats, the BC Liberals took the Prince George ridings by sizeable margins. The NDP will win between 1-5 seats on the Island, with Nanaimo-Cowichan being the only sure win, while Saanich-Gulf Islands is not winneable in my opinion as they only got 21% last time around, so they are unlikely to pick up enough votes to win it. The Liberals will get between 0-3 seats with Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca likely to stay Liberal, Victoria will be a tough one, but winneable, and the same could be said for Saanich-Gulf Islands. The Conservatives will also get between 0-3 seats with Nanaimo-Alberni and Saanich-Gulf Islands being the most favourable, while Vancouver Island North they will have a strong challenge from the NDP.

The safest seat in and around Victoria according to the folks who actually have access to polls claim its for the NDP with Denise Savoie.

The idea of the Liberals taking Sannich and the Islands is wistfull thinking. Lund will have a fight with the NDP candidate,as the greens have faded. Orr was a do nothing Liberal MLA for one term Most famous actions was being spotted in disabled parking spots around the house. Please don't tell anyne and I wont's do it again. But she got caught a few times doing the same thing. Most thinking people know you simply don't do that. The fine at a disabled meter in Victoria without a permit is 150 bucks up front folks.

Esquimalt has a new mayor, and MLA both left of center. Keith is due to go back to doing what he is good at. Doctoring. Besides BC is short of doctors

But whom am I to dispute the experts who do blogs. Jan 24 with be an interesting day. The Libs are supposed to gain a few seats in BC as are the NDP. Let's not forget what dogs do with polls. And on that day, the experts will come up with rational argument that they were right all along, just wait.

Good morning, DL, and thanks. You're right about Miles being a professional blogger, I hadn't picked up on that. It sort of explains the faux professionalism of his seemingly comprehensive roundup of every seat in BC.

Since he is a kind of front for the Liberal HQ, no doubt much of what he says is valid. But that's just the bait to get in the tainted material!

Playing the expectations game, the key is to make yourself sound believable by solemnly announcing the fully expected results of some one sided contests (no argument, ... reader casually swallows the idea that the guy knows what he's talking about), and then following up with some apparently sensible analysis of SOME of the more contestable seats. Now, with ground work laid, send in the zingers!

It's at this point the dedicated blogger, or daily news "pundit", starts disseminating the deception material, the improper calculations that are designed to reduce real electoral risks by fooling both swing voters and rival activists. When you look at the close results in Burnaby Douglas and New West Coquitlam in 2004 you can see how vital a bit of deception can be.

An example is Miles claim that only two seats in the Interior/North are in play, Skeena and Southern Interior. On paper, that may be accurate enough. But anyone who knows any real history knows these ridings can produce much larger swings, so the usual plus/minus bands don't really apply. Similarly his calculations around Prince George Cariboo are based on an arithmetically accurate but logically invalid reshuffling of provincial vote totals. The NDP vote may carry over, if it wants to, but the BC Liberal vote faces a fundamentally bigger challenge in that regard.

If Jack Layton can make Terasen an issue like BCRail, and make CNRail a federal regulatory issue, watch for BC Regional Minister David Emerson and his cronies, including Prince George Liberal Sycophant Mayor Colin Kinsley, to take it pretty hard and to respond in a ragged fashion that helps to build the issue up.

In fact, Emerson has already been losing it, calling Layton and the NDP "simple-minded" for opposing the Terasen scam. Is that Emerson's response to every Canadian who isn't happy about this thing, ... we're all just simple minded? Good question for an all candidates meeting in Van Kingsway I think.

DL is right the Green Party vote will likely go down in Saanich-Gulf Islands, but I don't necessarily believe it will go the NDP. Some of it certainly will, but ignoring local candidates for a minute and looking strictly a party platforms the Green Party is ideological closer to the Liberals than the NDP. They are both fiscally conservative, whereas the NDP believes in tax and spend policies. In fact the former Green Party leader is a former Tory, albeit a Red Tory. As for Cariboo-Prince George, I don't think one can assume all provincial NDP support will carry over to the federal NDP. The federal NDP always gets 10-15% lower than their provincial counterparts, so that means the NDP is looking at 27-32%, so unless the Liberals do really well, which is unlikely, they won't win Cariboo-Prince George. Because the BC Liberals are seen as being to the right of the federal Liberals, there are many people who voted NDP provincially and Liberal federally. I agree the Liberals have no chance at winning the riding, but a large chunk of the federal Liberal vote will be provincial NDP votes. In addition, the area where the Conservative numbers have taken the biggest hit is the Lower Mainland, while in the interior they haven't changed as much since the hidden agenda doesn't scare people in the interior like it does in the Lower Mainland.

Miles, you still seem to think this election is about policy and ideology. Its not, and is more of a replay of 1993 in BC, with the populist vote looking for an alternative besides the Liberals and the Conservatives.

The Green Party may be similar on policy wise to other parties, but the 10% of votes it gets is about 3% Green, and 7% vote parking by voters who drive SUVs, don't recycle, and own shotguns. Those who reject the major parties, and will stomach the dippers regardless of what they stand for.