This is the Sheila Orr (Liberal) who threw her arms around David Basi when he showed up to vote at her nominating meeting, right?

Is Stephen Harper setting the stage for something here? I've always wondered why Paul Martin's opponents didn't zero in on the connections.

I don't know much about David Kelly personally. Even though I think Sheila Orr will have a tought fight, I do believe Saanich-Gulf Islands is a winneable riding. In the last three elections, Gary Lunn has always gotten below the provincial average for the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives so unless there is a major rebound, I think he could conceivably lose this time around. I will be helping former Liberal cabinet member Joyce Murray who was a very hardworking MLA and could probably do far more for New Westminster-Coquitlam in one year than Paul Forseth has done in the last 12 years. In fact, James Moore and John Cummins are the only Conservative MPs I actually like. The party does a great job of attracting one issue and extreme candidates i.e. Darrel Reid, while does a great job of scaring off moderates i.e. Keith Martin, Val Meredith and the hard-working and popular MPs i.e. Chuck Cadman. I am not against the Conservatives gaining seats, but hopefully any gains they make will be in Eastern Canada where their candidates tend to be more moderate and more of them are from the former PCs as opposed to the Reform/Alliance. I in fact myself was a former PC so I have no ill feelings towards those from the former PCs, but I absolutely despise the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance. Sure they had the odd good MP, although almost all of them were pushed out or left in disgust.

Well Miles with your help Joyce is sure to come in a strong 3rd place finish.

St. Mary's will resonate in the riding in both the New West and Coq parts, and Joyce will rightly get the blame for not saving the hospital.

The riding is sure to either stay Tory or go NDP.

I know you Rick hate the Liberals, but even though the St. Mary's Hospital, won't help Joyce Murray there are other factors that could allow a Liberal win. The Liberals are in the centre so they can draw votes from both the NDP and Conservatives. Many Conservatives, especially the more moderate ones like myself cannot stand Stephen Harper so they will likely go over to the Liberals as opposed to the NDP. I agree that the NDP will probably do as well if not better than last time around, but I think it will be the Conservatives who will come in third, not the Liberals. In Burnaby-Douglas, everybody said it was an NDP-Conservative battle with the Liberals likely to come in distant third, yet the Liberals almost won the riding and the Conservatives came in a distant third. Also, when I helped out Richard Lee last provincial election, almost everybody I talked to was positive Burnaby North would go back to the NDP, but guess what, Richard Lee was re-elected.

Rick is correct.The riding will be NDP or Conservatve. Orr didn't do much as a MLA and folks sort of remember. No matter whom the campaign manager might be. If he can vote in the riding she will get two for sure.

What people like Miles Lunn don't get is that BC has a populist electorate. The reason the NDP made some ground last time around was on the diminished perception of populism in the merged Conservative party. Now that we all see how eager the NDP are to give themselves raises when they're not flip-flopping on propping up corrupt regimes, those populist ridings the Tories lost in 2004 are more likely to swing back to the only party that actually cares about the little guy instead of organized crime or union fat cats.

"...those populist ridings the Tories lost in 2004 are more likely to swing back to the only party that actually cares about the little guy instead of organized crime or union fat cats."

Your argument might have more strength were it not for the never ending fixation of too many Reform and Tory types with morality matters. If they stuck to genuine crimes, they'd be on a roll. But then they have to let the Myron Thompson - Randy White crowd get in the way.

It may interest you to know, Andrew, that there are people in pickups who enjoy sex and don't like to feel guilty if they are users of marijuana. That's something that a lot of Tory strategist cannot accept, it doesn't fit the pre-designed manual of approved voter types that the Republicans gave them.

Actually Andrew McVie, neither the NDP or Conservatives are populist parties. Why would British Columbians vote for a party whose views go against their own. Most British Columbians supported Canada's decision to stay out of Iraq. With the exception of Quebec, BC was the only other province where a clear majority supported same-sex marriage. The fact is when there is no populist party, British Columbians vote along ideology as they did last provincial election since neither the BC NDP or BC Liberals could be classified as populists. Most polls show British Columbians are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, which is what the Liberal Party of Canada is (this is why the BC Liberals were re-elected). Also Paul Martin is in BC practically every other week, while Stephen Harper almost never visits BC. It is true Jean Chretien generally ignored BC, but Paul Martin is not Jean Chretien. As for the Conservatives caring for the little guy, ha ha ha. How is supporting sending our young men and women off to fight in Iraq caring for the little guy. How is being against women, minority, gay, and aboriginal rights caring for the little guy. How are corporate tax cuts (which I support to improve our productivity) views as caring for the little guy. How is a parallel private health system (which I also support since a truly egalitarian system will never exist as much as it would be nice to have) seen as caring for the little guy. The reason the NDP did poorly in the 90s was the unpopularity of the Glen Clark government. Since then their popularity has improved and despite the anger over the pay raise, this hurt the NDP and BC Liberals equally. I should note according to one poll, British Columbians are twice as likely to associate the BC Liberals with the federal Conservatives as opposed to the federal Liberals, so while I am personally a BC Liberal and federal Liberal supporter, I think a different perception exists out there. More importantly, I am really only a BC Liberal supporter since I would probably be a Conservative if Peter MacKay was the leader, but Stephen Harper is just too right wing for me.

Miles,

True enough (that I dislike Fed Liberal politicians, gee corruption and arrogance will do that to some people eh?),

But I am willing to put good money on the line that Joyce Murray does not finish in the top two. Do we have a gentlemen's wager???

However, I do find it distressing that a good lad such as yourself has gone down the silly path of, "oh no the Tories are sooo scary and Harper is such a big socon meanie" blah, blah.

Ah I can't wait for the oh so original accusations of a "hidden agenda", etc. Maybe more Fed Liberal ads of a hand gun shooting at people and women crying in abortion clinics eh?

Before, you continue on your tirade of scary Tory nonsense, why don't you and any other reasonable type posters on this board have a peek at the March 2005 Tory policy document.

Read through some of these policies and I challenge anyone to find anything that can be labelled "scary" or "out of the mainstream" in the entire document.

Check out:
http://www.conservative.ca/media/20050319-POLICY%20DECLARATION.pdf

Or for a web version:
http://www.conservative.ca/EN/policy_declaration/

Pay particular attention to policy:
#58. Abortion Legislation
A Conservative Government will not support any legislation to regulate abortion.

Or

63. Family and Marriage
iv) A Conservative Government will support legislation defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman.

Note that Harper has says he supports in conjunction with traditional marriage having civil unions with full rights and responsibility of marriage open from homosexual couples. This is the "scary" position of many "scary" social democratic European countries, i.e. France, Sweden, the state of Vermont.

The Conservative party is hardly a socon party. It is not even an extreme right wing party on other issues. Check out other official party policies.

For Pete's sake the Tories support freaking supply management in some agriculture sectors!!!!

A policy I vigorously argued against, but a bunch of farmers and the agricultural critic voted me and a few others down.

Oh well, the Tories are a big tent party, even including those who think supply management is a good idea.

Cheers

Pie-in-the-Sky, I wish I could understand your infatuation with Sheila greeting David Basi when he showed up to vote. The last time I checked he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Please refer to Brian Mulroney and all that he went through. If I were narrow minded I would remind you that Steven Harper embraced former PM Brian Mulroney who as we know has been the subject of investigations etc. but exonerated in the end. Sheila is an excellent candidate who won the nomination based upon her experience and service to the community. I am sure even you would agree these are noble traits for any politician to possess.

Budd,

You make some good points (as per usual, damn you you sense-making dipper!) but I think as Rick points out our policies do appeal to libertarian-minded voters like the "sex-in-trucks" folk you describe.

We are the only party that has liberal social views and "leave me the hell alone" fiscal policies.

Rick - I have nothing against the formal Tory policies, I am more concerned about Stephen Harper's past views when he was leader of the NCC. The fact as at the convention, each riding was weighted equally so since their Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and urban Ontario members are generally pretty moderate, that is why they have moderate policies (and this is a good thing long-term as hopefully their next leader will be more moderate). However, the vast majority of their caucus members and party members are from the West and from the Reform/Alliance. On Supply management, I am no fan of it, but when you consider most of the Tory seats are in rural Canada, they cannot bring forward policies to anger where they already have support. Maybe Harper isn't scary, but after seeing what George W. Bush has done to the United States, I am going to play it safe. As for same-sex marriage, the issue here is do believe in taking away rights once they are granted. The social democratic countries you mentioned have never granted that right in the first place, whereas in Canada we have so if we revert to the traditional definition of marriage, we need to annual thousands of marriage licences, which I believe is wrong. On Abortion, the party itself supports maintaining the status quo, but such issues are decided by a free vote and since most of the caucus is pro-life and for every pro-choice Tory member, there is one pro-life Liberal, I don't think it is inconceivable a private members bill would pass since someone would try to pass one, if not on the Tory side, then one of the maverick Liberal MPs like Tom Wappel might take advantage of the strong pro-life element in the Conservative caucus to ultimately get his dream. And yes Rick I am willing to bet that Joyce Murray won't come in third, although I won't bet that she will win her seat. I think the battle will be between the NDP and the Liberals and if you don't believe me, look at the recent polls in BC that show the Tories in third. Finally to end things here; I hope to rejoin the Tories after the election when Harper is forced to resign and we can get a better leader. My personal pick is Bernard Lord although with his one seat majority in New Brunswick, that looks out of the picture for now, so Peter MacKay would do. Besides, the BC Liberals are generally to the right of the federal Liberals so the more BC Liberal supporters they elect, the more it will help pull them to the right.

Well Miles it is nice that you keep an open mind.

I just hope that you will also rejoin the tories when PM Harper is elected in January and you see that the party is not as "scary" as the media and the fiberals would have.

I am also glad you are willing to take up the wager on Joyce.

I am willing to bet any amount of cash between $10.00 and $100.00 that Joyce does not get into the top two in her riding this election. (I don't want you to lose too much cash, and both PM's on the bills are conservative)

Name your price.

Cheers

Hi Rick, I'll bet $10. I was also wondering if you want to bet on who will win the election. I am going to go along with what Ralph Klein said that the Liberals will have another minority government. As for rejoining the party if Harper wins, I want to see what he actually does before re-joining, so try something like January 2007 and thats assuming he does a good job, which considering how obstructionist and uncooperative he is not just with other parties, but even other members of his own party, I cannot see myself rejoining. I have often argued if it ain't broke, it doesn't need fixing. While the corruption issue may need fixing, when issue many ignoring is the economy, which has done very well under the Liberals. I should also point out the Tories were the only party to vote against the recent tax cuts the Liberals introduced so on the tax cuts issue, I tend to side with the Liberals of basing the size of our tax cuts on the size of our surplus rather than a fixed sum. On the Health care front, I don't like the Liberal fearmongering, but when you consider that Quebec already has what they claim they are against and they have done nothing about it, it is really just empty rhetoric. The fact is we already have a two-tiered system. If you have a lot of money and need a hip replacement or MRI you can get in days rather than months. Most of my fears about him are based on his past statements when he was Canadian Alliance leader and president of the National Citizen's Coalition. Considering he runs the party top-down, I have little reason to believe his views have changed, although if they have that would good.

Sure,

$10 bucks it is re: Joyce not in top 2.

As per your request I'll also add another $10 re: the Tories will win more seats than the Fiberals.

It will be good re you rejoining the tories since it will be in time for the next convention in spring 07.

Cheers

"... as Rick points out our policies do appeal to libertarian-minded voters like the "sex-in-trucks" folk you describe.

We are the only party that has liberal social views and "leave me the hell alone" fiscal policies.

Posted by Andrew McVie at November 25, 2005 12:34 PM

Good afternoon Andrew, ... as we head towards a Convention weekend at the Westin Bayshore, it's good to have some sensible political debate as a kind of warmup drill if nothing else.

There no doubt ARE some, perhaps many Tories who are sophisticated, enlightened people. Unfortunately the Bible Belt types are sufficiently visible and vocal as to set a large part of the tone, and Harper as leader is not in a strong enough position personally to fully repudiate them.

The most important of these issues, now that the gay marriage bill has been passed, has to do with the treatment of soft drugs, since that is starting to interfere with people's investments in their homes when there are commercial grow-ops just two doors down the street. Are you sure that the Tories can advocate decriminalization, let alone legalization, without having the Randy White wing of the party going ballistic?

And while I know your convention turned down a pro-life resolution for the policy manual, Cheryl Gallant and others are running again. Is there a plan in place to handle them?

Sounds like a good deal. That of course means if the Liberals win but Joyce Murray comes in third, no money for eithers or if the Tories win, but Joyce Murray places in the top two spots, no money for either. Will $20 if one if us is right on both predictions. Sounds good. Anyways it looks like Ralph Klein would bet on the Liberals. Budd Campbell - I am not only concerned about Stephen Harper not being able to control them, but more concerned that the troublemakers almost all endorsed him for leader, while the moderates mostly endorsed Belinda Stronach with a few Tony Clement supporters so generally speaking you do the most for those who help you get the leadership position, not those who support your opponents. On Marijuana I support full legalization. For those like Randy White who would go ballistic over it, I say it is better to have it legal but heavily regulated and heavily taxed much like we do with Alcohol and Tobacco. This would free up police officers to deal with real crime and the additional tax revenue could be used for hiring more police officers as well as improving our health care system. As we saw with prohibition on alcohol, we something becomes illegal, you create a black market. I don't support Marijuana use, but I would rather it was highly controlled than not controlled at all.

Just asking, Tim. Is that making you nervous?

Pie you must be joking! Did you hear the Eurocopter investigation that made outrageous allegations of fraud against tory insiders was thrown out today. The facts always come out in the end.

Sheila Orr won't appeal to the NDP and Green voters needed for her to win. And there's no reason that she'll appeal to the conservatives who back Gary Lunn. She's kind of a joke, even though Gary Lunn isn't particularly great, he's managed to hold off better candidates. The Conservatives are in a free-fall, but he comes across as reasonable enough. He'll likely hold on if not the NDP will win. Andrew Lewis might do better for the Greens, but I doubt he'll get over 20%.

But hey, Tim ... when is The End in the terms of Basi and or Virk. Is this drag-on fair to them, I ask you (because you seem to know).

Sh*te, even Saddam Hussein (arrested at about the same time as the RCMP raided the B.C. Leg) has come to trial ... the way things are going, we may not live long enough to hear The Facts. Half of which have been quietly dropped already.

Andrew, the public will want to know what exactly the CPC is going to cut to achieve your reported leave-me-alone fiscal policies. And, the public will want to see proof of the hysterical “organized crime” allegations. Amazingly in one post, you have apparently,

A. Presented a hidden agenda of service cuts, and
B. Repeated hysterical allegations.

The CPC is still on public trial as to whether or not it is a party of extremists and anti-government fear mongers. If the CPC continues with campaigning like the above, it could *give* the Liberals a majority government…

Andrew, rhetoric like yours makes the Liberals’ task very easy. You would be wise to move on to topics, with content, that are actually of direct interest to most swing voters. The Liberals are pounding the airwaves with such messaging.