Ipsos-Reid has lots of toys and goodies on its sleigh

Ipos-Reid Corp. is giving politicos a pre-Christmas present. The public opinion research firm is releasing a major 800-sample size poll, which was conducted between November 24 and 30, identifying the opportunities and vulnerabilities of the leaders and parties in the next provincial election. Some of those results will be broadcast tonight on BCTV. Others will be published in tomorrow morning's Vancouver Sun. And a more detailed analysis will be available during Ipsos-Reid's breakfast presentation at the Marriot Vancouver Pinnacle Hotel. In an interview with Public Eye, Ipsos-Reid public affairs vice-president Kyle Braid, not surprisingly, declined to give specifics on the poll results. But he did talk about some of the questions the firm asked British Columbians.

According to Mr. Braid, in addition to the usual voter confidence skill testing questions, Ipsos-Reid "asked about who's going to be the best premier. We asked about whether the public thinks that Gordon Campbell and Carole James will be an asset or a liability in the next election campaign. We asked about who the public thinks in the next mandate will be better to deal with a whole range of issues, ranging from healthcare and education to social services."

"We also asked about the economy. We asked about whether people think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected again. And we asked about the public likelihood of the public supporting all three major parties in the next election so that we can start to figure out the hard support versus the hard support versus the potential support."

Mr. Braid then added, "We've got a whole bunch of other specific questions around things like Carole James' and experience, whether the Liberals are mean-spirited...What we did is we sat down and figured out what the things the NDP is likely to say in this campaign and what are the messages the Liberals are likely to communicate. So we tested those kinds of things."

BCTV legislative bureau chief Keith Baldrey and Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer will also be on hand during the breakfast to make their election predictions.


I'll put my neck on a limb pre poll and say that I doubt there are any major changes from the last polls, with the most likely scenario of a gain for the Liberals within the margin of error: The public seems pretty evenly divided between the two camps, and this will continue.

I have no doubt there are 'soft' NDP supporters that may have drifted back to the Liberals with all the budget surplus and economic good news, but pretty much anybody who has been supporting the NDP over the Liberals given the perceptions of the "NDP decade" has to be both pretty accepting of the NDP and pretty unhappy with the Liberals.

Budget surplus is not a real surplus.Almost a Billion dollar is a transfer payment as a have not province which should be spent on services a have not province can not afford to.The rest comes from ministry of childern and families.If economy is booming according to Keith Baldrey on B C T V then why are we still have not province under Liberals next year and year after.If you go in to the details of Ipsos Reid poll then Adam T is right Liberals have not gained anything.

Bally, the surplus is 2 billion, and the transfer payment was $800m. Is it your claim that Children and Families was cut by $1.2 billion? If so, you're a liar. If not, you can't do math.
And we are not a have not province. Equalization payments are 30 months out of sync.

The equalization payment jumped to 1,200,000,000 under the new formula. 1.2 billion dollars or 60 percent of the provincial surplus is federal money.

The surplus is 2 billion for the year. The 1.2 billion equalization is over two years -800 million this year, and 400 million next year. The additional 400 million will be part of next year's surplus, not this year's.

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