Reading the real poll results

The British Columbia Federation of Labour's by-election poll isn't exactly good news for the provincial New Democrats, showing them in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals. So why did the federation release those results? Well, according to party insiders, there were two reasons. Number one: if New Democrat supporters believe victory isn't a sure thing, they're more likely to go to the polls on Election Day. Which means the man who publicized the poll, BCTV legislative bureau chief Keith Baldrey, has inadvertently become part of the lefties get-out-the-vote strategy (a bit of a downer for those who think CanWest Global never does any favours for the New Democrats). And number two: the poll shows Green Party candidate and leader Adriane Carr is a potential spoiler. So New Democrats are hoping that will cause some of her supporters to think twice before voting for her.

6 Comments

Regardless of what happens next May I’m hoping to see at the very least, a muscular opposition if the BC Liars form the next Government. If the NDP pull off a miracle come from behind victory, BONUS!!!

From an NDP strategic perspective, I would have waited another week (much closer to next Thursday's election date) before releasing this poll as the impact likely would have been greater.

Somehow, Surrey-Panorama Ridge (Surrey's only real swing riding) does have similar attributes to the May, 1981 Kamloops By-election.

At the beginning of that campaign, Vancouver Sun columnist Marjorie Nichols pointed out that the NDP were ahead by 20 points in an opinion poll and that the NDP would win even if the NDP ran a "broom" as its candidate.

May, 1981 was also the peak of the then housing boom and the economy was still rather robust, almost akin to today's economic climate.

Today, we see another Mustel Group poll showing the Liberals maintaining their 6-point lead provincially, which is relevant in that the 2001 Surrey Panorama-Ridge results virtually mirrored the then provincial vote.

The Strategic Communcations poll shows a close race. I recall other Strategic Communications riding polls released by the NDP, prior to the last federal election, for similar strategic reasons.

One riding comes to mind - Vancouver Kingsway -with the following results:

NDP - 54%
CPC - 20%
Liberal: 17%
Green: 8.5%

David Emerson, the Liberal candidate, won the race about one week later.

What will likely matter next Thursday is the ability of all party organizations to identify and pull out their vote.

Whoever is more successful and motivated in this regard will win the race.

Could not Ms. Carr's status as a potential spoiler work the other way 'round? Specifically, if she's percieved that way she gets more attention in the media and thus gets more support from both sides of the spectrum in a double-whammy.

Hmmm...

Mr. J. posted while I was ruminating....and after reading his excellent analysis have to conclude that the declared preferences could be very soft indeed. If that is the case could well be a crapshoot, in which case the Editor is right and Baldrey has done the NDP a favour by helping to stave off complacency.

I'm resigned to the fact that the Liberals will indeed win the election next year. Carole James has failed miserably thus far. She has yet to come out and say what she and the NDP are about all. The only time we ever hear anything from James is when she is criticizing the Liberals. I'm very very disappointed with Carole James thus far. I hate seeing Joy McPhail leaving because she is such a pitbull and she gives it to the Liberals.

Another blunder is that of Jim Sinclair. Sinclair and ALL the unions had the Liberals right where they wanted them, when the HEU strike was going on. The majority of the public was supporting the unions like never before. Then all of a sudden Sinclair sells out HEU. His reasoning is he wanted to wait until the election next year. Well Sinclair it looks like that has blown up sky high right in your face!!

I felt compelled to respond to Glen’s rather well thought out post, principally where I disagree…(with cut and paste just for you Keglar)

“Carole James has failed miserably thus far. She has yet to come out and say what she and the NDP are about all” - Glen

Here I disagree, we all know what the NDP is all about – DEBT (Here the NDP gave B.C. 17 BILLION definitions) & UNIONS (Spend more tax payer money on Unions subsidization…Island hi-way project, Fast Ferries and whatever else…oddly more labor strikes too, however that is an entirely different subject.)

Where I agree with Glen…

“The only time we ever hear anything from James is when she is criticizing the Liberals. I'm very very disappointed with Carole James thus far. I hate seeing Joy McPhail leaving because she is such a pitbull and she gives it to the Liberals”.

True…all Carol James does do is criticize. About the only policy she has shared thus far is her intent to destroy the fish farm industry and raise the minimum wage - both are certain to help simulate economic activity and provide certainty to British Columbia she tells us. Right. Just like how B.C.’s economy was restored all by itself.

I also concur with Glen’s thoughts on the loss of Joy McPhail. Joy has been the “Wayne Greztky” off the NDP. I don’t think you will hear many admit to it, however she will be sadly missed from B.C. Politics. The job that Joy has done with “un-official” opposition status has been beyond commendable. Having said that, I do hope her recent private members bill contains a retroactive component that will equally penalize Glen Clarke who wrote the book on partisan government advertising.

“Another blunder is that of Jim Sinclair. Sinclair and ALL the unions had the Liberals right where they wanted them, when the HEU strike was going on. The majority of the public was supporting the unions like never before. Then all of a sudden Sinclair sells out HEU. His reasoning is he wanted to wait until the election next year. Well Sinclair it looks like that has blown up sky high right in your face!!”

Have to agree here as well – Never before has B.C. faced the prospects of a general strike that could have brought a government to its knees with public support, as was the case here; I suspect Mr. Allnut would concur with my thoughts in this regard. Almost makes you wonder what it was the Gov. had on the union leadership to sell out the party faithful doesn’t it….

Leave a comment

Copyright © 2004 - Public Eye Mediaworks. Reproductions of any portion of this Website are permitted only with the expressed permission of Public Eye Mediaworks.
Canadian Web Hosting graciously provided by dotcanuck Web Services. Layout and graphics courtesy of Art Department Design.