I also perdict that the Liberals will keep the seat 35 days from September 29, 2004.

If Carol James-Leader of the New Democrats had run, she woould win.

That is my perdiction. It could be the same night, Sen. Kerry Becomes the next President of the USA.

Given that the track record of governments holding seats in bye-elections, I would reasonably surprised if the Mary Pollak managed to win. In 2001 the seat went roughly as the parties did provincewide, slightly better for the Liberals than average.

Given where polling is at and given a history of government losses in bye-elecitons, I predict a narrow NDP win now and a Liberal win in 2005.

Adrianne Carr is taking a huge risk running here. If she can not come second in a bye-election, her claim to be a major player decreases dramatically. If the NDP loses by less than 1/2 of the Green vote, then this could result in a major Green loss of votes in 2005.

Tom Morino is an interesting enterant into the race. It is not beyond belief to see him get 5-10% of the vote and finish ahead of the Greens - doing much like the Gordon Wilson Liberals did in the late 1980s and early 1990s in the bye-elections.

As to the US presidential election, I predict the US will elect a president that dislikes open free trade with Canada and commits more troops to Iraq.